Insights
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun March 17, 2024
I’m starting this commentary with an analysis of Putin’s recent state of the nation address (“Putin’s Six-Year Manifesto Sets Sights Beyond Ukraine,” https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91872). Please take a few minutes. The source is the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The…
Author(s): Norman Dempsey, MBA | Sat March 16, 2024
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest is a compendium of news, commentary, and opinion from or of interest to our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may include older and/…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue March 12, 2024
Every time the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been negative year-over-year and the yield curve was simultaneously inverted, there has been a recession – not just a slowdown but a recession. We have decades of data to support this assertion.
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Mon March 11, 2024
Chairman Powell gave his semi-annual monetary policy testimony on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and on Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee. His introductory remarks were fairly short.Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun March 10, 2024
Sam Rines penned this as a Managing Director of CORBŪ and has granted me permission to share his entire discussion about oil, Guyana, etc. with our readers. He is right on the mark. I thank Sam for his analysis and letting me share it with our readers.
Author(s): Norman Dempsey, MBA | Sat March 9, 2024
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest is a compendium of news, commentary, and opinion from or of interest to our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may include older and/or guest…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon March 4, 2024
We believe that the effects of Covid on the economy and financial markets are diminishing. And we believe that the Phillips Curve (which represents the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment) is supporting this. For now, we want to share a long-term chart of the Phillips curve. The…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun March 3, 2024
We thank readers for their many comments about our Cuba series. The three parts are available here:
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 27, 2024
A few readers have questioned the use of credit default swap (CDS) prices as a determining factor in setting interest rates. Please note that CDS is beyond the control of the Federal Reserve. Prices about the default risk insurance on the United States are set in global markets and really…
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun February 25, 2024
As my colleague John Mousseau recently noted in a weekend video, the tax-free Muni bond market outperformed the US Treasury bond market during the weakness period of trading a few days ago. The question asked by a client was, “Why”?Here’s a possible explanation.