This Sunday, we decided to take a break from the serious business of the debt ceiling, federal deficit, Federal Reserve policy, banking crisis, and the rest of the list. Instead, we would like to offer three visual metaphors that depict the difficulties of the decision-making process that drives…

In the April 24 edition of his daily am/FX macro letter, Brent Donnelly gave us his take on day two of the Global Interdependence Center’s recent conference on “Cryptocurrency and the Future of Global Finance.” The focus of day two was Asia, and specifically China.

Discussion on the Monday morning internal portfolio-management strategy call within Cumberland included this quote, which I lifted from a Bloomberg Monday morning piece:   

The FOMC will be meeting on May 2–3 and will be facing largely stale news on the state of the economy because of the lags in producing major economic data. For example, only the first of three releases of GDP for Q1 will be available for the committee, and only March data regarding personal…

Tennessee is famous for America’s first radio show: the Nashville-based Grand Ole Opry.

China’s GDP in the first quarter came in considerably stronger than expected, raising hopes for the global economy and equity markets. Yet significant headwinds still lie ahead for both China and global markets.

The suggestion in last week’s FOMC minutes that a slight recession was a possibility later this year was widely publicized. The suggestion was initially reported as the FOMC’s view, but it was quickly corrected as having been contained in the staff’s forecast presented to the Committee.

I want to follow up on my Sunday, March 19, morning missive, sent at the beginning of the current banking crisis (“50 Years & More of Bank Failures + SVB,” https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/50-

Publishing Date: Apr 15, 2023