Several readers responded to our July 30 commentary, “The Cost of Debt Ceiling Crisis” (

Fitch Ratings downgraded the US government’s credit rating on August 1st. Fitch took the rating down to AA+, one notch from the previous AAA rating. We believe this is a combination of Fitch’s view of the large US government deficit and the standoff between President Biden and House Republicans…

We’re headed to Maine for the 33rd year of visiting the St. Croix River Valley and, specifically, the Village of Grand Lake Stream, ME. (https://grandlakestream.org) The village itself has about a 100 year-round population. It has one store. No traffic lights.

Kotok prefatory note: This 20-minute read (4700 words plus charts) is an exploration of the cost of the debt ceiling crisis. We expect that there will be serious academic work on this subject within a year or two, just as occurred after the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. Please consider all opinions…

This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on the second half of 2023 and a look back at the first half of this year. As we mentioned in January, one of our basic investment tenets is that markets revert to the mean over periods of time.

The editorial note inserted in last Sunday’s piece (“Texas, Heat, Malaria, Mosquitoes”) triggered some questions that focused on the Sahara dust cloud.

Where does responsibility for the banking crisis of spring 2023 lie? What missteps did now-failed banks make? What did the Fed get right? What did it get wrong? How has the banking crisis impacted costs? Lending? Businesses? Community banks? Can community banks recover? Will we see more…

The minutes from the most recent June 2023 FOMC meeting have been released. They contained the expected recitation of the Committee’s commitment to fighting inflation, and routine discussion of participants’ views about the economy, employment, and the risks to the outlook.