“…the incidence of household financial distress has increased for the most common types of debts. For credit card debt and auto loans, the incidence has reached high levels, equal or close to those during the Great Recession.” 

Treasury yields declined precipitously during the 4th quarter as the Fed’s dovish pivot during the December meeting led to the expectation that rate cuts will be coming earlier in 2024. The biggest decline was seen in the 3-year, which dropped 72.8 basis points to 4.074% as of 12/26/23.

First, we want to wish all clients, referring consultants, business colleagues, and all our readers a safe journey with good health as we commence 2024.    Next, since this discussion will be about the defense of our country, let me first make a “compliance” disclosure. The US Equity…

As we wind down 2023’s year in bonds, the long, strange trip is ending up at the same ten-year bond yields that we started with.

A look back at 2023: The recession that wasn’t.

International equity markets are ending the year participating in the rally in global risk assets. Previous concerns about recessions over the coming quarters have eased, as has inflation, while prospects for central banks to begin reducing policy interest rates around midyear have improved. Yet…