It was a very tough third quarter for the bond markets in general and for the muni market in particular. The table below lays out the quarter.  

As this Sunday draft is being edited for final publication, the government shutdown of the United States has been averted with a stopgap bill — but there are already costs incurred with a negative impact on interest rates reflected in CDS pricing.  

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has a full-disclosure discussion of what a “government shutdown” means and how it happens. There is also some important history in their working paper.

I thank readers for their responses to our commentaries, including this one on “Life Expectancy”: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/life-expectancy.  

In response to some of our writings about the economic costs of global warming and the lack of coordinated mitigation, Thornton (Tip) Parker ([email protected]) wrote this commentary which we have agreed to share with readers.

Here’s an argument about why this time (2023–24) under Fed Chair Powell is different from the 1970s inflation fight under Fed Chairs Burns and, subsequently, Volcker. We are ignoring the brief Fed Chair Miller interregnum (March 1978 to August 1979). We especially want to thank Mike Konczal for…

Twenty-two years ago, I walked out of the Marriott Hotel abutting the South Tower of the World Trade Center. The North Tower was already on fire. The plenary session of NABE (National Association for Business Economics) had abruptly stopped its breakfast meeting and was rapidly exiting the…

Texas declared an emergency from heat, then withdrew it.   https://www.fox7austin.com/news/ercot-says-normal-op

 Summary

Midway through the third quarter of the year, economic activity in the Eurozone appears to be entering a period of stagnation. The composite (manufacturing and services) August Flash PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) dropped to its lowest level since November 2007. This is the third consecutive…