Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Buyer Beware
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Thu August 15, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors


    The week and a half following the FOMC’s July meeting has been filled with extreme market volatility, demonstrating behavior that experts say market participants should not do and that is to react to a single data point upon its release. We have had many such data and information releases, and it…
  • The Fed's Balance Sheet
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed August 14, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors


    Now that financial market agents and media pundits have collaborated in planning for one, two or three Fed rate cuts this year, the attention, and the debate, has moved to the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. By my observation, you can line up ten economists and get eleven opinions. The truth is…


  • July CPI: Implications for the Fed: David Berson's Economic Brief
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Wed August 14, 2024

    July CPI: Implications for the Fed


    July inflation about as expected – good enough for the Fed to ease in September. The July CPI rose by 0.2 percent, meeting market expectations. The core CPI (removing the volatile food and energy components) also increased by 0.2 percent (equal to market expectations). As has been the case…


  • Profits, GDP, Markets
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun August 11, 2024

    Profits, GDP, Markets


    Profits and GDP help explain the stock market rally of the post-Covid period. 


  • Bonds Go Big
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Wed August 7, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors


    “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”– Herb Stein, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents Nixon and Ford 


  • A Weaker Employment Report – Is a Recession Imminent? David Berson's Economic Brief
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri August 2, 2024

    Weaker Employment Report


    So, is the economy finally downshifting to the slower pace of trend growth – or are we transitioning from above-trend growth to recession? The 4.3 percent level of the unemployment rate triggers the Sahm Rule.
  • CCC? Not For Me!
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 28, 2024

    CCC?


    This quote was a lead item in Michael Gayed’s Lead-Lag report on July 24th:


  • More Good Inflation News: David Berson's Economic Brief
     Author(s): David W. Berson, Ph.D. | Fri July 26, 2024

    David Berson's Economic Brief


    Inflation about as expected – and that’s probably good enough. The June Personal Income and Outlays report for June showed that consumer spending remained solid, although income was a bit lower than expected. But the key figures were the PCE and core PCE inflation measures.
  • 2024 Cumberland Advisors Markets Mid-Year Outlook
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Mon July 22, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors Markets Outlook Mid-Year 2024 by John R. Mousseau


    This is a brief overview of Cumberland Advisors’ thoughts on financial markets as we head into the second half of 2024. We know that there could be some volatility in markets based on this anything-but-normal presidential election year; however, in the end we believe economics will continue to…


  • Uncertainty
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 21, 2024

    Uncertainty


    Mr. Market had answered this way about recent uncertainty: “Gimme bad news or gimme good news, but don’t gimme no news.” 


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch