Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Fore!
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu April 14, 2022

    Fore!


    The errant financial golf ball that is the municipal bond market has now careened out of bounds and landed – for now – in a spot where we think the lie is extremely attractive: 4% on long-maturity tax-free bonds that are insured or high-grade.

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  • Q1 2022 Municipal Credit Commentary – Pandemic and Now War!
     Author(s): Patricia M. Healy, CFA | Tue April 12, 2022

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    This quarter was overshadowed by the invasion of Ukraine by Putin.  Nonetheless, there were many developments in Muniland. Discussions on improving muni reporting of ESG risks and outcomes continued. Assured Guaranty Municipal (AGM) was upgraded by Moody’s to A1 based on substantial progress of…


  • Responses to Holodomor
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun April 10, 2022

    Holodomor


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    We thank readers for their responses to Holodomor (https://cumber.com/market-commentary/holodomor). We’re sharing some of them below.   Another David wrote:    


  • Covid & Long Covid Update
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri April 8, 2022

    cumberland_advisors_market_commentary_-_covid_long_covid_update_by_david_r._kotok


    Dr. Greg Kelly is a practicing pediatric epidemiology expert with frontline experience. He assembled the following instructive Covid thread on Twitter and offered it publicly to the world. In it he explores six beliefs about Covid that time and the virus have proven to be wrong. It is what we…


  • Understating the Quit Rate
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu April 7, 2022

    cumberland_advisors_guest_commentary_-_the_quit_rate_by_tlr_wire_kotok


    Understanding the “quit rate” is key to assessing the labor force changes going on in the United States. We thank Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood for permission to share their recent piece about it with our readers. This example of their excellent research will give you a sense of why I…


  • Jobs, Inflation, Stocks & Bonds
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed April 6, 2022

    Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Jobs, Inflation, Stocks & Bonds by David R. Kotok


    Following the Friday employment report, Dr. Julia Coronado tweeted: “Hiring is still hot at a 3m pace of 562k jobs thru March, but agg[1] hours growth has slowed to 2.9% 3m saar[2] from 6.0% in Dec, in line w/ the tracking moderation in GDP. Better supply allows more jobs, shorter work weeks--…


  • Holodomor
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun April 3, 2022

    cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-sunday-2022-holodomor-by-david-r.-kotok


    To understand Putin’s playbook, one must study history. We have already discussed Putin’s mind (https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/putins-mind).

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    His mentor is Joseph Stalin. Putin is following that playbook. He has…


  • Taxable Total Return 1st Quarter 2022 Review
     Author(s): Daniel Himelberger | Fri April 1, 2022

    Daniel-Himelberger - Q1 2022 Review Total Return Taxable Fixed Income


     

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    The Treasury curve continued flattening during the first quarter of 2022, with short-term Treasury yields rising precipitously while longer Treasury yields rose at a…


  • Inflation and the Fed Scare Bonds in the First Quarter
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Thu March 31, 2022

    John R. Mousseau - In the News


    Muni Update, First Quarter 2022

    The first quarter of 2022 is ending in the largest bond market sell-offs since 1994. Below is a comparison AAA tax-free yields and the respective US Treasury yields. As you can see, the yield ratios are a touch cheaper than they were at the end of the…


  • CIO Overview & Outlook - 1Q 2022
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon March 28, 2022

    Cumberland Advisors CIO Overview & Outlook - 1Q 2022 by David R. Kotok


    The volatility of the first quarter of 2022 slammed the markets in reaction to the world’s geopolitics. All macroeconomic forecast models are under revision. All expectations of a central bank’s monetary policies shifted and are now less predictable. Our Federal…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch