The Federal Reserve cut the short-term federal funds rate on Wednesday from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. This is the first rate cut since the Fed began to raise rates in March of 2022 coming out of Covid. It has long been expected that the Fed would cut at today’s meeting. The Fed has hinted at…

The Federal Open Market Committee announced that it was cutting the target federal funds rate to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent – a 50 basis point cut in rates. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEPs, otherwise known as the dot plots) shows that a majority of FOMC members projects a year-end…

Today I will recap the 3rd quarter and discuss the 4th, including Cumberland’s positions in the defense sector and healthcare, the trajectory for interest rates, political uncertainties, and tariffs.

More and more information is becoming available that will be relevant to the FOMC’s policy formulation process at its September 17–18 meeting. As we know, GDP growth in Q2 was still firm at 3%, but more recent data suggest that a slowing is in progress. Perhaps most informative is the most…

The August consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in August, with the 12-month trend rate up by 2.5 percent -- just as market participants expected. Slower increases in food prices (up by 0.1 percent) and declines in energy prices (down by 0.8 percent) helped to moderate the CPI.

The employment report showed that the job market was mixed over the past few months, but up a bit for August.

There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview. 

As is customary, the FOMC chair Powell led off the prestigious conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In his August 23 keynote speech, he suggested, in a decisive break from his usual practice, that a rate cut was likely at the FOMC’s September…

PCE inflation as expected, and financial markets like it.

The issue of Federal Reserve Independence, when it comes to monetary policy, once again arose recently, when former President Trump and his running mate argued that the president should have a say in the formulation of monetary policy. They argued that they had unique insights that are more…