Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Zika Update
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun July 2, 2017



    For two years, we have been following the Zika virus outbreak and the failure of the US government to protect its own citizens, let alone demonstrate world leadership. In total, by the time Congress managed to pass a stopgap spending bill for the fight against Zika in September 2016, more than…


  • 2Q 2017 Municipal Credit
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Sat July 1, 2017



    As budget season comes to a close, there were 14 states joining Illinois that still had not finalized their budgets by the time of this writing. Illinois, which has received numerous downgrades because it has not had a budget in two years and has amassed a large backlog of receivables, could…


  • Intergenerational Equity
     Author(s): Gabriel Hament | Thu June 29, 2017



    For 30+ years, Cumberland Advisors has worked with nonprofits, helping boards of directors draft RFPs, structure investment policy statements, and design investment portfolios within a separately managed account format – all in compliance with our clients’ unique state regulatory environments.…


  • 2Q2017 Review: Tactical Trend
     Author(s): Matthew C. McAleer | Wed June 28, 2017



    Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in order to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the…


  • Headline Risk, a One-Two Punch, and Contagion Risk
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed June 28, 2017



    The Sunday, June 25, New York Times article “After Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis, Worries Shift to Virgin Islands” highlights recent developments concerning the Virgin Islands territory’s lack of market access, drawing a parallel to Puerto Rico and assessing the potential for contagion to other US…


  • Taxable Total Return – Second Quarter Review
     Author(s): Daniel Himelberger | Tue June 27, 2017



    As the second quarter of 2017 comes to a close, markets have once again been dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its decision to raise the short-term interest-rate target another 25bps, to 1.00–1.25%. While this most recent rate hike was priced into the market, the decision…


  • 2Q 2017 Tax-Free Review: Total Return Investing in Municipal Bonds
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Sat June 24, 2017



    “The best bond values today will not be the best bond values next year and will certainly not be the best bond values until maturity.” – Sidney Homer, January 1973, Salomon Brothers study

    Sidney Homer’s statement from a study published 44 years ago still rings as true today, when the 10-…


  • Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 2Q 2017 Review: Volatility Correlations
     Author(s): Leo Chen, Ph.D. | Fri June 23, 2017



    After the VIX temporarily broke above the 15 handle in mid-April, the US stock market was quickly restored to a low-VIX environment in the second quarter of 2017. In a remarkable display of fearlessness, the VIX index closed below 10 four times in the past month – and the VIX has closed below 10…


  • MLP: Second Quarter 2017 Review
     Author(s): Richard Daskin | Thu June 22, 2017



    MLPs have had a disappointing quarter and year thus far. As of June 16, 2017, the Alerian Total Return Index is 9.2% lower for the quarter and 5.62% for the year. We believe the yield on the Alerian Index of 7.37% as of that date versus the 10 year US Treasury bond of 2.152% (source Bloomberg)…


  • The Rise of Municipal Separately Managed Accounts
     Author(s): Patricia Healy, CFA | Wed June 21, 2017



    Cumberland, since its inception in 1973, has utilized separately managed accounts to execute its fixed income strategy. This was long before separately managed accounts (SMAs) were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch