To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its target range for the federal funds rate constant at 1.5 to 1.75%. This decision maintains the Committee’s record of no rate hikes at meetings where no SEP forecasts were available and also spaces out its gradual normalization of policy. There is virtually…

Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is http://www.cumber.com/thucydides-part-1/.

In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first…

“Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison)

“We really don’t think it was tariffs – those have been in the public domain for days. Rather, we believe the market has a very unhealthy dynamic at the moment. Washington…

Last week the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank brought together in Washington the world’s finance ministers, central bankers, financial experts and economists, other government officials, and invited representatives from the private sector, academia,…

An isolated Pacific island barely big enough to accommodate an airstrip has gained global importance (see photo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marcus_Island_DF-ST-87-08298.JPEG). Some 787 miles east of South Iwo Jima, Marcus Island, or as the Japanese call it, Minami-Tori-shima (also…

Leo Chen, Ph.D., Portfolio Manager & Quantitative Strategist for Cumberland Advisors, will join me to speak on July 12th for an annual gathering of economists, bankers, academics, and finance industry representatives known as the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit. If you missed Dr.

We thought we would list a few things for readers to think about when contemplating the US stock market.

1. The first is a brilliant research observation from Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets, who writes from London:

“The result can materially boost the income a USD investor receives…

Most market participants have accepted that 2018 is unlikely to be another low-volatility year like 2017, but how do we translate the rising volatility into our market forecast? Some Wall Street bulls such as RBC’s Lori Calvasina have revised their year-end forecasts down recently.* Are those…

OMG! What a wonderful lunch. Nine people total in a private room at a restaurant in Punta Gorda. Martin Barnes organized it, and Danny Blanchflower seeded the idea. Joining were Tim Dalton, Ned Davis, Bob Eisenbeis, Jeff Saut, and a certain ancient one who must remain anonymous but who calls…

“China’s reaction to Mr. Trump’s legitimate defence of the American homeland has been a Great Wall of denial – despite incontrovertible evidence of Beijing’s illicit and protectionist behaviour. Instead, China is attacking American farmers with the threat of retaliatory tariffs in the apparent…