As the June FOMC meeting approached, pundits and market participants increasingly expected the Committee to raise rates.

In the modern geopolitical world, money and payments are integrated in war (and trade wars) and politics. We see that intrigue in the daily news flow. Some 2400 years after the Peloponnesian War, we can still glean from antiquity lessons to guide us. The Thucydides Trap includes money as a tool…

With all the Trumpian hullabaloo over trade, I want to share with readers a balanced, well-reasoned analysis of US trade issues penned by my good friend Bob Brusca, Chief Economist of FAO Economics. Bob makes it clear that while there are pros and cons to the US’s longtime propensity to run…

On day 1 our econometrics professor warned us to be careful with correlation: A strong correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causality. This is the case with the VIX. It’s closely related to the S&P 500 with a negative correlation, but the relationship may not be causal. I will never forget…

We are back in Southern France, in the town of Bonnieux, perched on a hilltop in the Luberon region of Provence, far from the hustle of Paris. The country has recently endured a record number of thunderstorms, which have caused some serious flooding, and continues to experience a series of rail…

In our recent commentary “Predictions,” we quoted Daniel Kahneman and the story of the cost overruns and prolonged construction period associated with the Scottish Parliament Building. The project’s troubles didn’t end when the ribbon was cut. Brian Barnier, who is a voracious reader, sent me…

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra made this quote famous, though its origins are disputed.

On May 31, we published a note entitled “Jobs for Everyone”(see http://www.cumber.com/jobs-for-everyone/). Many readers replied, and the views were diverse,…

In the May 10th edition of the Economist, an article entitled “Make work can’t work” (p. 25 in the print edition) considered the Democratic proposal for a jobs guarantee in United States. It opened as follows:

In the past two weeks investors have come, belatedly, to recognize the negative implications of the election of a populist government in Italy, the first such government in Western Europe. The possibility of a government collapse in Spain as a result of the main opposition party’s call for a…

The FOMC minutes are designed to provide a concise summary of the presentations and discussions that take place at FOMC meetings and the context behind the terse press release provided at the end of each meeting. Presumably, this communication device is meant to provide added color and a…