Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 17, 2018 - Dec 21, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER'S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt talks about trading and pricing in this week's review. Do we think the market is worth 7% less than when it started on Monday? David Kotok kicks things off with some history of the market going back to 69/70 and offers some projections going forward. WATCH HERE.

MARKET COMMENTARY

• Stock Market and Tariff Truce

  David R. Kotok 12/21/2018

• Market Backlash

  Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 12/21/2018

• Is Climate Warming Creating More Dangerous Hurricanes?

  Bob Bunting 12/21/2018

• 4Q 2018 Review: Market Volatility

  Leo Chen, Ph.D. 12/19/2018

• Leveraged ETF Tracking Error

  Leo Chen, Ph.D. 12/14/2018

• TNB and the Regulatory Dialectic

  Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 12/13/2018

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FEATURED INTERVIEW

Fair For Mnuchin To Pinpoint Algo-Trading: Eisenbeis (Radio) – Bloomberg Markets

Listen here: https://www.cumber.com/fair-for-mnuchin-to-pinpoint-algo-trading-eisenbeis-radio-bloomberg-markets/

IN THE NEWS

• • • Wallet Hub - What are the Do’s and Don’ts of New Year’s resolution-making?

  Quoted:Gabriel Hament 12/19/2018

• • • Sarasota Herald Tribune - Sarasota analysts surveying stock-market damage

  Quoted:Matt McAleer 12/18/2018

• • • Newsweek - Recession 2019? Chances of Economic Decline in Next 12 Months Now Highest of Trump Presidency, Experts’ Survey Finds

  Quoted:David R. Kotok 12/18/2018

• • CNN Business - This is why presidents shouldn’t mess with the Fed

Quoted:David R. Kotok 12/17/2018

Painting by Cumberland Advisors' Chief Global Economist, William Witherell

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

• • Surplus, Interest, Debt: Personal Finance in a Nutshell

    Michael McNiven, Ph.D. 10/26/2017

    Cumberland Advisors in partnership with the University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), with support from the Financial Planners Association (FPA), are proud to announce the 3rd annual Financial Literacy Day which will be held in Sarasota, FL at USFSM on April 11, 2019. Several nationally recognized speakers are on the agenda. See the USF Sarasota-Manatee website for further information about our upcoming event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III.” What follows here is a basic guide for individuals regarding their personal approach to debt management and wealth creation. U.S. household consumer debt has reached an all-time high of almost $13 trillion. This includes student loans, auto loans, credit cards, and mortgages/home equity lines of credit. Many of our friends and neighbors of all socioeconomic classes have not been exposed enough to fundamental financial principles. Feel free to share it with others in your communities who may benefit from a refresher on these basic points. An easy to share and downloadable PDF version of this piece is available too. Continued...

• Kilimanjaro

  David R. Kotok 06/07/2017

  This is the end of my fourth safari. South Africa and Zambia now recede into memory as a fresh natural mosaic of Tanzania and Kenya add a layer to the blending of remarkable African images. Amsterdam to Arusha to start. Coffee fresh and strong. Then off. Tarangire, Lake Manyara, Ngorongoro, Serengeti, Masai Mara, and other names are exquisite, exotic labels that still cannot wholly capture the vividness of the images and memories. Somehow this fourth time, there is still the excitement and wonder of my first time in South Africa, many years ago. In the bush there is an expanse of separation from the turmoil of global politics, terrorism and markets. Roles and patterns in the bush are understood. Carnivores and herbivores know their places and methods in the pursuit of life and of death. Suicide bombers killing children are not part of the bush’s ecosystem. Hemingway’s greatness with his pen was to blend powerful opposites in his depiction of the human drama. Hence we started this commentary with his movingly descriptive metaphor of Harry’s death. In “Snows,” Hemingway’s writing alternately flows between retrospective stream of consciousness and the present, between the internal and private place that is uniquely known only to each of us and the public behavior that may or may not be under our control. That has also been the tenor of the conversation we have enjoyed privately on this trip, contrasted with the interactions and observations made during two weeks on three continents while interfacing with the diversity of the human form and spirit. Yes, we followed markets daily. And, yes, we watched developments in Washington and Pyongyang and Beijing and Jerusalem and London and elsewhere. And, yes, we were in frequent contact with our colleagues and office. Such is travel in today’s world. Even in the bush there is a tower and a signal. And, for us, there is a personal and professional curiosity that requires our always being current. There is something else. Continued...

UPCOMING EVENTS

• • Adapting to a Changing Climate

    From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur - January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss "Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure" with the audience. Details Here.

• U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

  Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/