Once again, the latest release of the Employment Situation by BLS, which indicated that only 235,000 jobs were created in August, has demonstrated how difficult forecasting is. For example, the Dow Jones survey of economists predicted that 720,000 jobs were created, a forecast that turned out to…

The recovery of the European economies in the first eight months of this year from the pandemic-induced recession has been impressive, despite the headwinds stirred by a resurgence of COVID-19, particularly its Delta variant, and severe material shortages and transport bottlenecks.

While we’re escaping the world on Labor Day weekend let’s not forget that a new, rapidly mutating, highly infectious variant of SARS-CoV-2 detected in South Africa and several other countries is becoming necessary to track; the WHO is doing now, because of its rapid mutation and its concerning…

Patrick Watson is Senior Editor & Macro Analyst for Mauldin Economics and has joined us at Camp Kotok. In his Connecting the Dots newsletter, Patrick recently penned a timely, insightful piece on the breakdown in civility in the US that has been made worse by the pandemic. He has very kindly…

“The rapid increase in the number infections had no impact on July’s job numbers. Those figures were gathered the week of July 12, before the full impact of the delta variant surge. Going forward we do expect the new wave of infections to negatively impact economic activity in in-person services…

Rick Newman joined our second week gathering at Leen’s Lodge. He added much to the discussion and debate. Here’s his newest column at Yahoo! Finance. He’s talking about COVID costs, insurance premiums, and surcharges for unvaccinated employees. We strongly recommend this column for everyone in a…

At Leen’s Lodge this year, Camp Kotok participants engaged in an extensive discussion of the dollar and its status as the world’s reserve currency, the historical structure, present-day problems, competing currencies (including central bank digital currencies and crypto), central banks, and all…

Dear Clients & Friends, Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this Friday August 27, 2021 end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies, Matthew McAleer and Shaun Burgess, Portfolio Manager & Fixed…

U.S. Equity ETF Portfolio Update

A critical factor impacting Federal Reserve policy and when the Fed will begin moderating its accommodative monetary policy depends, under its new framework, on progress in achieving its “broad-based and inclusive maximum-employment goal.” This issue was addressed in the minutes of the July FOMC…