Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials.  Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

 

Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Munis: First Take on the House Tax Bill
     Author(s): John R. Mousseau, CFA | Sat November 4, 2017



    The House bill proposes to keep a 39.6% top rate. Thus there will be no reduction on the demand side for munis for individuals.

    The corporate rate is lowered to 20% from 35%. The lower rate may hurt corporation demand for munis, most likely in shorter-term maturities since their yields…


  • Zika Update: Brace for Resurgence
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu November 2, 2017



    Back in 2013 a mild virus nobody paid much attention to underwent one small mutation: A single amino acid (serine) was replaced by another (asparagine), according to Chinese scientists who recently published their research in the journal Science (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-…


  • Keynes, Kuznets & Trump
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue October 31, 2017



    At 8:22 a.m. on Saturday morning, @realDonaldTrump greeted the world with this observation: "Very little reporting about the GREAT GDP numbers announced yesterday (3.0 despite the big hurricane hits). Best consecutive Q's in years!" – Hat tip: Politico.


  • Surplus, Interest, Debt: Personal Finance in a Nutshell
     Author(s): Michael McNiven, Ph.D. | Fri October 27, 2017



    What follows here is a basic guide for individuals regarding their personal approach to debt management and wealth creation.


  • Bitcoin, Gold & Money
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Fri October 27, 2017



    We start with a quote by Donald Trump, courtesy of CNN, May 16, 2016: “This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you, OK?”


  • U3 or U6: Bob Brusca or Joel Naroff
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Wed October 25, 2017



    We are privileged to invite readers to a serious debate and discussion. Recently we published two pieces in which we tried to describe markets in terms of metaphors. We thank readers for their many thoughtful responses.

    In the second “metaphor” piece we incorporated three charts prepared…


  • A Win for Abe and Japan: Challenges Lie Ahead
     Author(s): Bill Witherell, Ph.D. | Tue October 24, 2017



    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved a landslide victory in the snap election held Sunday, assuring that his ruling coalition retains its two-thirds majority in Japan’s lower house. It also makes it very likely that Abe will be selected next year to continue…


  • Markets, Metaphors & Labor Data
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu October 19, 2017



    We thank readers for their gracious comments on our markets and metaphors missive (http://www.cumber.com/market-history-and-metaphors/), examining historical periods that “rhyme” in one way or another with the circumstances we find ourselves in today.


  • Tulip Fever
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon October 16, 2017



    Three levels are apparent in the wonderfully crafted movie Tulip Fever, in which the impeccably cast Judi Dench is both abbess (mother superior) and tulip-speculating vault keeper. The film is a cinematic lesson about trading momentum and human emotions overtaking investment reasoning.


  • Market History and Metaphors
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sat October 14, 2017



    “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” Mark Twain supposedly once observed. As the Fed begins to shrink its balance sheet even as it determinedly jacks up interest rates, we would be prudent to consider where history has rhymed before and what we might learn from those instances…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch