For a year we have watched the toll that COVID-19 has taken on lives, economies, and much that we once took for granted. With vaccines now in hand, crisis reduction is underway. But there are assuredly potholes on the road to successfully beating back COVID-19 so that it becomes a much less disruptive threat, one from which we can largely protect ourselves. Those potholes and how we navigate them over the coming months have economic implications and implications for investors. Will people and policy makers let down their guard too soon? (Some already have.) Will we win the race between the vaccines and emerging variants of the virus? Much remains to be seen.
A Global Interdependence Center (GIC) briefing on Tuesday, March 9, “Virus Mutations,” focuses on that second question, examining mutations and resulting variants of SARS-CoV-2, their significance for our fight to quell the pandemic, and our race against them. We strongly encourage readers to watch the briefing (it’s free) with the road ahead in mind. This is a terrific hour for anyone who thinks about COVID and its implications seriously. Here’s a link to a replay and to slides: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/virus-mutations/.
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In the first 18 minutes, Thomas Unnasch, Distinguished USF Health Professor at the College of Public Health at the University of South Florida, offers a primer on how viruses mutate, with a particular focus on SARS-CoV-2. Next, Priya Nori, an Associate Professor at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Medical Director of the Montefiore OPAT program, drills into what we know about current SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and the particular mutations that complicate our fight against COVID-19 (E484K and Eek). The Eek mutation seen in the South African, Brazilian, and NYC variants, for example, confers not only a resistance to current iterations of vaccines but also to antibody therapies that can prevent severe illness.
Even with the variants circulating, however, Dr. Nori notes that vaccines likely still offer > 85% protection against severe illness. Further, the vaccines we have now appear to slow viral shedding, so Nori is “cautiously optimistic” that vaccinated individuals will prove much less likely to shed enough virus to infect others. Given the endgame of slowing transmission and preventing deaths, Dr. Nori pronounces the vaccines a “resounding success” and notes that boosters targeting variants are set to be fast-tracked, with only small trials needed.
Dr. Nori charts the most direct path to a post-COVID new normal as depending on vaccinating a high percentage of the population quickly; continuing to rely on interventions that work, such as masking, distancing, limiting gatherings, and ensuring fresh or filtered air; and expanding genetic sequencing to ensure that we can track variants and identify hotspots.
A must-listen audience Q&A with Dr. Unnasch and Dr. Nori follows the richly informative presentations and rounds out the hour. Viewers will learn which vaccine is best (spoiler: the first one you can get) and why comparing trial results for the J&J vaccine to the trial results for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines is a faulty exercise. Our brief synopsis here is no substitute for watching.
Note, too, the GIC’s next executive briefing, “Human Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 and Emergence of Variants,” scheduled for Tuesday, March 16, 2021. Readers can sign up to watch and submit a question for presenters here: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/antibody-developments/.
David R. Kotok
Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer
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