Ukraine

David R. Kotok
Mon Jan 24, 2022

There’s a lot to know about the current situation in Ukraine. So below is a link to a multifaceted discussion about Ukraine and the geopolitical risk elements there, including the Turkey connection. Many thanks to the Foreign Policy Research Institute for their ongoing contribution to the subject and their analysis of this risk-fraught area of the world. Let me add that some analysts see Russia-Ukraine and the potential outcome of their conflict as analogous to the China-Taiwan conflict. Some experts claim a new incursion by Russia into Ukraine would encourage China to move on Taiwan.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Ukraine by David R. Kotok

 
We don’t know and have no private insight. We have engaged in briefing conversations and discussions about geopolitical risk as regards both Russia and China. We also have extreme underweight exposures to China and to Russia in our Global Equity ETF strategy. And we have an overweight position in Aerospace-Defense within our US Equity ETF portfolio.
 
We also note our view that sanctions are a weak tool. Besides China and Russia, we point to Cuba, where decades of US sanctions haven’t changed the regime in power. Note that the same is true for Venezuela and for other countries.
 
Now here’s the link to FPRI’s special edition on Ukraine.
 
https://mailchi.mp/fpri/spotlightukrainejan21?e=d541a5c5cd

David R. Kotok
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
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