Our recent Sunday morning missive, “Putin’s Mind,” featured a Frontline interview of a seasoned journalist who has the depth and experience to address the issue. Here’s the link for those who missed it: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/putins-mind
We’ve had many responses and thank all readers for their comments which are below.
But first, let me add some history.
On March 15, 44 BC, Julius Caesar was stabbed to death in the Roman Senate: 60 conspirators, led by Marcus Junius Brutus and Gaius Cassius Longinus, killed the self-proclaimed dictator. The day later became infamous as the Ides of March. Shakespeare, invoked it in his famous play with the line, “Beware the Ides of March.” The words of Caesar as he died became famous, too. “Et tu Brute” was his final utterance, according to the Shakespearean version. So here’s the question as Russia self-destructs and consigns itself to a full generation of poverty, pariah state isolation, and ruthlessly applied internal suppression. Is there a Brutus in Russia?
Now, some responses from readers.
Lindsey wrote:
Some 15 years ago I worked with a post-doc who was born in Russia and came to the U.S. as a young kid. His parents, who were professionals in the biomedical field, came to the U.S. as researchers and somehow became U.S. citizens. One thing I remember what Constantine had mentioned is that his parents really feared Putin and they felt Putin would eventually start a regional war that had the potential of escalating into a bigger war. Let's just hope that Constantine's parents are wrong about the second part of their fears. He then added, “To me the billion dollar question – knowing what Putin is like, why in the hell do corporations of the free world want to do business with Russia? Simple answer, revenue & profits!!!”
Fred sent:
Others may have emailed you the following:
1. Ezra Klein interview of Masha Gessen. Podcast episode of Friday, March 11th, "The Ezra Klein Show". Great interview. I listened to it on Friday. It was recorded on March 10th. I just noticed that NY Times published a transcript of it: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-masha-gessen.html
2. Frontline interview of Julia Ioffe on March 2nd, published on March 9th. It is in preparation for the Frontline documentary “Putin’s Road to War,” which debuts on Tuesday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSNo2FPQDQw – 46min
3. "The Weakness of the Despot / An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West,” by David Remnick, March 11, 2022: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin I read the interview, versus watching the video of the interview on top. It is also available as an audio podcast (The New Yorker Radio Hour), published on Friday, March 11th. Very good for historical context.
4. A very interesting Twitter thread on the Russian military:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278
Here is one of the tweets in the above thread:
“December 2021. Thieves-in-law imposed tribute on a Russian military base, making NCOs & officers to pay them cash. They specifically target veterans of Syria who earned cash there. They harass, threaten, beat them. Leader of the gang was arrested but released in several months.”
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502681269204881411
5. And, this just posted in the FT:
“US claims Russia has asked China for military help in invasion of Ukraine”
6. So, when Francis Fukuyama says, "Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine," he may be right. I read his piece (https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/) before reading (4) and (5) above. And, I quickly dismissed it. But now I think that there is a reasonable possibility (but <50%) that he may be right.
A different Fred sent:
Your reaction and conclusion from the Masha Gessen interview is the same as mine. I sum by three points: 1. Everyone should listen to the interview. 2. To malign the beauty of the concluding song from West Side Story, it appears “only death will part us now.” 3. As she told the interviewers, Putin feels he is “chosen,” a messianic complex which is in process unleashing all four “horsemen of the apocalypse” (concluding with the famine that will follow the Ukraine incursion).
Yahoo’s Andy Serwer and Max Zhan’s did a good job discussing the rising problem of authoritarians. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-worlds-bad-guys-are-on-the-rise-104951694.html . Since all authoritarians are forced eventually to rely on “forced” investment, we know they cannot succeed financially in fair competition with free markets. So the eventual choice is between freedom and forced slavery. FOR ME, THAT IS NOT A “choice.” We must win this.
Jeff sent this:
I remember reading a story about W Bush and Putin meeting somewhere. They had their dogs with them, which seems odd or maybe they were having a deep discussion of dogs. I cannot remember what W had—maybe a cocker spaniel. Putin had some sort of dog that was trained as an attack dog. Putin commented something to the effect that W’s dog (“Barney?”) was not a killer, or something along those lines. This was later in Bush’s presidency. If I am not confusing this story, it is very telling. Awful events playing out for Ukraine and the Russian people. The world, too.
[Jeff, thank you. Here’s the link to the story about W Bush, Putin, and the dogs:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/illinois-playbook/2022/03/02/george-w-bush-dishes-on-putin-in-chicago-00013130.]
A different David K sent this link and an excerpt:
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/03/kotkin-on-russia-and-the-west.html. A great interview with historian Stephen Kotkin. Kotkin has some thoughts on the Kennan, Mearsheimer, Kissinger, Hill, Service, et al. view that expanding NATO was a precipitating event in the Ukraine-Russia war, which are well taken, albeit he fails to think on the margin. Much more important is his full-throated defense of the West. Just a few months ago a defense like this would have been branded as right-wing agitprop and the author attacked for not being woke to the evils of capitalism. But Putin has reminded the West of its virtues.
A note from Mourad:
(Mourad sent in a thoughtful response beyond the scope of this missive. I share his concise conclusion in quotes below. -David)
People like Putin, "...are not 'evil.' They are only men and women mired at the extreme end of a developmental trajectory the components of which comprise the perfect storm."
Frank wrote:
I feel that Putin must be destroyed, just like Carthage of old. It is a puzzle why Berezofsky was so instrumental in elevating Putin, unless he knew that Putin would shower him with loyal gifts and that it would be better to be a friend rather than an enemy of Putin.
Julie sent this:
… this was a great way to know Putin better. He will lock in the remaining folks living underground in Kyiv and starve them to death. He is a monster.
David R. Kotok
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
