To understand Putin’s playbook, one must study history. We have already discussed Putin’s mind (https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/putins-mind).
His mentor is Joseph Stalin. Putin is following that playbook. He has added to it by using long-distance artillery and missiles to reduce cities to rubble.
To understand the Stalin-Putin playbook, one must learn to pronounce the word Hó-lo-do-mor, which means “hunger extermination” in Ukrainian (“Holodomor,” https://www.britannica.com/event/Holodomor). One can also read about it in Anne Appelbaum’s book Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine (https://www.amazon.com/Red-Famine-Stalins-War-Ukraine/dp/0804170886/). And one can find many videos about it. Here’s one: “Holodomor: How Millions Of Ukrainians Died of Starvation During Stalin-Era Mass Famine,” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPplN7PSUE4&t=14s. Or one can visit the Holodomor museum in Ukraine – but I wouldn’t recommend the trip today (https://holodomormuseum.org.ua/en/).
Stalin made any deal that suited his purpose, including one with Hitler and then another with the Allies at the very end of WW2, when it suited him. Putin is equally untrustworthy and unreliable. Stalin could kill 50 million people and not be remorseful. Putin likewise appears to experience no remorse about inflicting death and mayhem.
All strategies must insert this reality check into their calculus. The more the Western alliance of NATO-plus can inflict debilitating financial penalties on Putin, the better. The more the alliance can send modern sophisticated longer-range weapons to assist Ukraine, the better. The more Russian military vessels get sunk, the better. A fierce Ukrainian resistance is willing to fight to prevent another Holodomor. It needs weapons.
A personal note — I keep meeting people who have one branch of their heritage or another leading back to Ukraine. They speak up about it. They find out about it. Then, one after another, they start to do something. Give money to a humanitarian cause. Get active in politics on behalf of Ukraine when talking to American politicians. One prospective Senate candidate is going to lose his effort because he mouthed off too early in this war. Readers can figure out who that is.
I will fly a Ukrainian flag on my car. They are easy to buy online. I will help with humanitarian assistance.
I will also remember an ancestor who originated in a village called Karalevich near Odessa a long time ago. Because of him, I am here, my father was here, my grandfather and my great-grandfather were here. Their predecessors lived in that village.
Remember Holodomor.
David R. Kotok
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
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