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Fire and Water

Patricia Healy, CFA
Sat Nov 2, 2019

The fires engulfing parts of California are feared to become the nation’s worst fire disaster, possibly surpassing 2017 and 2018 fire events. Spurred on by wind gusts of up to 80 mph, this disaster harkens back to Superstorm Sandy, which occurred seven years ago, in October 2012.

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - California - A Note on the Fires
Superstorm Sandy soaked the Northeast, and its 80-mph winds caused almost $70 billion in damages per Wikipedia. It was one of the most costly natural disasters ever to hit the United States. The extent of the damage was also a function of the storm’s hitting many densely populated areas that were centers of economic activity. No one yet knows, and it will likely take some time to determine the full cost of the 2019 fires in terms of damages to homes and businesses, lives lost, and the cost of the herculean response by CalFire, municipal fire departments, and others. It is only October, while the deadly Camp fire of 2018 occurred in November, and dry conditions continue to persist. The fires this year, like Superstorm Sandy, have occurred in or near some densely populated areas with high real estate values, many businesses, and intense economic activity.

The state has experienced numerous deadly and damaging fires – think of the devastating 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire, for instance. The reality of fires, earthquakes, and mudslides are juxtaposed with the draw of the great weather, diverse topography, access to ocean and mountains, headquarters of many industries, fertile land producing the vast majority of the country’s produce, and a long independent history. The “California dream” of finding fame and fortune continues to be an allure for many.

As the world’s fifth largest economy in terms of GDP, California has tremendous resources, as David Kotok noted in his heartfelt video on the California fires (link included in his recent commentary: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-markets-the-deficit/ or directly at this YouTube link: https://youtu.be/yW1lbdkxbAw).