The creation of 916,000 jobs in the month of March is truly impressive and a sign of a rebound in the nation’s economy, bringing the total for the first quarter to 1.6 million jobs. The March number far exceeds the 647,000 jobs predicted by economists (https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy/wrapup-3-vaccines-fiscal-stimulus-boost-u-s-employment-in-march-idUSL1N2LU2L8) and was nearly twice the 517,000 jobs predicted by ADP (https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/March/NER/Report). The unemployment rate dropped from 6.6% to 6.2%. Where were all these jobs created? The table below shows the employment situation for the major industry segments of the labor market.
The biggest gains in terms of number of hires were in Construction (110,000), Education and Health Services (101,000), Leisure and Hospitality (280,000), and Government (136,000). But even if jobs continue to grow at the same pace, and that is an heroic assumption given past history, it will be quite a while before the unemployed in those sectors are back to work: from four months for Government workers to nine months for those who were employed in Education and Health Services. But the table also shows that, for some segments, it would take far more than a year for employment to get back to pre-pandemic levels. This point also ignores the fact that there are not only some 9.9 million unemployed workers 16 years and older, but there are also another 6.9 million people not presently in the labor force who want jobs.
So, while we have made some positive steps, there is a long and uncertain road ahead. In addition, it seems clear that recovery will be very uneven in the near term.
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.
Vice Chairman & Chief Monetary Economist
Email | Bio
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites. Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
