Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 20, 2019 - May 24, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors

Mon May 27, 2019

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER'S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt was traveling on Friday so David Kotok volunteered to substitute for Matt this week and share with you some thoughts on the world, the market, and where we're positioned

What's Happening?

We're enmeshed in an escalating trade war with China
President Trump is in Asia for meetings taking place this weekend
Caution is warranted under these circumstances
From an investor's view and a professional money manager's view, risk is high and rising
In our various ETF portfolio accounts we have some cash reserves (they are not fully invested today)
In the quantitative mathematical strategy, it's in cash
In our bond accounts, they are more defensive and in a barbell

David's latest commentary provides a little more depth for his video comments and that can be found on the Cumberland Advisors website:
https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-5g-huawei-trade-war-shooting-war/

We wish all our employees, clients, and friends a happy, safe, and reflective Memorial Day weekend.

Watch below or at this link: YouTube

<hr /> <h2><a href="https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/">LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY</a></h2>   <ul class="market_list"> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-5g-huawei-trade-war-shooting-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">5G, Huawei, Trade War, Shooting War</a> David R. Kotok 05/23/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-finally-some-positive-trade-news/">Finally, Some Positive Trade News</a> William Witherell, Ph.D. 05/21/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nations-wars-and-liberal-democracy-by-george-friedman/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">“Nations, Wars and Liberal Democracy” by George Friedman</a> George Friedman 05/20/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-tariffs-macroeconomic-versus-microeconomic-effects-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead/">Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead</a> Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/17/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-robert-brusca-ph-d-on-tariffs-trade-and-the-fed/">Robert Brusca Ph.D. on Tariffs, Trade, and the Fed</a> Robert Brusca, Ph.D. 05/14/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/">White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board</a> David R. Kotok 05/13/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/">Hope Is Not a Strategy</a> Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/07/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/">Brexit Deadlock and Investor Uncertainty</a> William Witherell, Ph.D. 05/06/2019 </li> <li><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/">Q1 2019 Credit Commentary</a> Patricia Healy, CFA 05/03/2019 </li> </ul> <h3><a href="https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/">Sign up or see more Market Commentary</a></h3> <hr /> <h2><a href="https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/">IN THE NEWS</a></h2>   <ul class="market_list"> <li> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/how-federal-tax-reform-has-impacted-real-estate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">How Federal Tax Reform Has Impacted Real Estate</a> Quoted: John R. Mousseau 05/20/2019 </li> <li> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/trade-wars-hammerlock-on-bond-market-puts-lower-yields-in-sight/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bloomberg - Trade War’s Hammerlock on Bond Market Puts Lower Yields in Sight</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/18/2019 </li> <li> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/why-the-us-china-trade-war-wont-last/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CNN Business - Why the US-China trade war won’t last</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/14/2019 </li> <li> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/markets-freak-a-little/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">POLITICO - Markets freak (a little)</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/08/2019 </li> <li> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-daybreak-asia-wear-a-helmet-when-doing-falconry-with-these-hawks-radio/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bloomberg Radio - Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Wear a Helmet When Doing Falconry With These Hawks (Radio)</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/06/2019 </li> <li> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/the-fed-decides-radio-podcast-bob-eisenbeis-on-bloomberg-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bloomberg Radio - The Fed Decides (Radio Podcast): Bob Eisenbeis on Bloomberg Markets</a> Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/02/2019 </li> <li> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/a-unique-lens-on-risk-management/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WisdomTree - A Unique Lens on Risk Management</a> Quoted: Matt McAleer 05/01/2019 </li> </ul> <hr /> <h3>IN CASE YOU MISSED IT...</h3> Summer Solstice at Salar de Atacama by David R. Kotok Dec 23, 2013 Early Saturday morning, December 21, 2013, we were sitting in the San Pedro de Atacama square, celebrating the solstice south of the equator. Overnight the temperature had fallen to 40°F, but during the day it rose steadily again to about 70°F. Under cerulean blue skies, we were surrounded by small birds chirping, tourist shops, hotels, hikers and trekkers, cyclists, horseback riders, and desert watchers on one side, and a small village church on the other. We thank readers for their comments in response to our commentary regarding Calama, Chile. It was an interesting couple of the days in the Atacama Desert. An oasis is formed by runoff from rain and snow on the Andes side of this very large valley. The highest peaks tower 20,000 feet. On the opposite side the valley is bordered by an older mountain range that is no longer volcanic or actively growing. Those mountains have been eroding for 20 to 40 million years longer than the Andes have and do not feature the dramatic peaks. An oasis in a high or a low desert is still an oasis. Green life, humans, birds, and other animals thrive due to the presence of water. I recall an oasis in Jericho, the lowest in the world, while I am now sitting in the middle of an oasis at over 8,000 feet. The similarities are striking. The surrounding desert, regardless of elevation, is of course extremely dry. There is the same large variation in temperature, day to night, and the two places simply feel much alike. Continued: <a href="https://www.cumber.com/summer-solstice-at-salar-de-atacama/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/summer-solstice-at-salar-de-atacama/</a> <hr /> <img class="mcnImage aligncenter" src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d6f020f3bd6a1e2c4eb254e6c/images/5c3f46c7-4885-4a21-aa90-d3f8ee298220.jpg" alt="" width="564" align="middle" /> Brother William Geenen is an individual who dedicated his life to helping others. At the age of 19, Geenen joined the Congregation of the Holy Cross of Notre Dame University (C.S.C.). He then advanced his education and earned a master’s degree in education from Loyola University. At Gilmour Academy in Gates Mills, Ohio, Brother Geenen taught English, served as a guidance counselor and principal. Decades later, a visit to Sarasota put him in contact with an ailing friend of his father’s and another man coping with the passing of his wife. On his trip back to Ohio, he thought deeply about the challenges facing Sarasota’s senior population—loneliness, the stressors associated with providing care to an infirm spouse, hunger and access to medical care. With the blessing of his brotherhood, Brother Geenen returned to Sarasota and worked to establish what is now an internationally-recognized, multi-campus delivery of service model for seniors and their caretakers. <img class="mcnImage aligncenter" src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d6f020f3bd6a1e2c4eb254e6c/images/c4985bfe-9523-4908-9372-d0a6c02c7807.jpg" alt="" width="564" /> Pictured here is Gabriel Hament of Cumberland Advisors, Friendship Centers President & CEO Erin McLeod and Friendship Centers Board Member Vicki Dworski. This week, Gabriel Hament, Investment Advisor Representative specializing in Foundations, Charitable Accounts and Private Individuals, visited the Sarasota Friendship Centers campus located on the corner of Mound Street and S. Osprey Avenue. “As we entered the main building, a half dozen couples were dancing to a live jazz band in a high-ceilinged great room. To the left, lunch was being served. For a simple snack, visitors are welcome to drop in for a $1.50 hotdog and lemonade and listen to the band. Customers were milling around a thrift shop and further down the hall a card room was filled with bridge players. In the next phase of the tour we visited the clinic where retired medical professionals offer their lifetime of experience to patients who might otherwise visit the ER for medical care. A state-of-the-art dental facility is also on-site." <a href="/sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/2019-05-27-13_55_04-Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-May-20-2019-May-24-2019.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-48675" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/2019-05-27-13_55_04-Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-May-20-2019-May-24-2019.jpg" alt="Friendship Centers" width="650" height="417" /></a> "We then jogged over to The Caregiving Place which featuring supervised, engaging activities for seniors with cognitive or medical issues. At that moment a service therapy dog was interacting with the Centers’ clients. Within that building is a special meeting area for caregivers who are seeking counsel and support throughout their caregiving journey. The campus is surrounded by expansive green space, buffering it from the traffic flow along Mound.” <img class="mcnImage aligncenter" src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d6f020f3bd6a1e2c4eb254e6c/images/d5373a68-2e19-48eb-a5d8-4f5a5f9e11fe.jpg" alt="" width="564" align="middle" /> We encourage our readers and clients to learn more about the Friendship Centers and its mission “To promote health, dignity and quality of life throughout the journey of aging” by visiting <a href="https://friendshipcenters.org" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://friendshipcenters.org</a>. <hr /> Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites. Sign up for our <a href="http://www.cumber.com/market-commentary-email-sign-up">FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries</a> Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials. Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 20, 2019 - May 24, 2019)

MATT MCALEER'S WEEKLY RECAP

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