Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 11, 2020 - May 15, 2020)

Cumberland Advisors

Sun May 17, 2020

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

</p> <div id="content" class="style-scope ytd-expander"> <p>Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities.</p> <p>Matt McAleer and John Mousseau are at their favorite watering hole close to the shop, a restaurant called Café Epicure that serves, in our humble opinion, great food and refreshments. We're here today to demonstrate our support for other small businesses and the restaurant industry that's been hit so hard this year.</p> <p>-Matt starts off and becomes one with the market by paraphrasing Welsh poet Dylan Thomas: "No! I will not go gentle into this good night!"<br /> -"Do not go gentle into that good night" is a poem in the form of a villanelle, and is Dylan Thomas' most famous work (1914–1953)<br /> -Matt says we've had some weakness in some of the short-term momentum indicators this week<br /> -The market had every reason to roll over but it stayed strong<br /> -Everyone has an opinion on this market, but they don't know anything more than you or I do<br /> -Supply and Demand will continue to run the market<br /> -An impressive Thursday and Friday<br /> -Next week, we're going to cover each strategy and layout how we're positioned: equities, fixed income, and cash</p> <p>-John has some things he hopes you'll takeaway from this week<br /> 1) Bond Market is pretty quiet - John gives details<br /> 2) Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell was out front and center this week asserting that the Fed does not want negative interest rates. We think that;s very good. He did leave the door open but said, "Not now." We don't think they want to do it for multiple reasons.<br /> 3) In the Muni World there are some credit issues around transit and sales tax. However water, sewer, and electric are doing well. We're seeing big demand for paper and they have access to capital markets, a very good sign for the municipal bond market.</p> <p>Thanks for joining us and if you're in the neighborhood, make sure you stop by and patronize a small business. Who knows? You might run into Matt and John at Café Epicure in Downtown Sarasota! Just in case, here's their website with their menu: <a href="http://www.cafeepicure.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">http://www.cafeepicure.com/</a></p> <p>Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week's update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: <a href="https://youtu.be/B8dio4pz5lg" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://youtu.be/B8dio4pz5lg</a></p> <p>Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.</p> </div> <div></div> <p><em>Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:</em><br /> -Link to Matt's Email: <a href="mailto:Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com?subject=Weekly%20Update" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com</a><br /> -Link to Matt's Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4">https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4</a><br /> -Link to Matt's LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/</a><br /> -Call Matt: <a href="tel:800-257-7013p346" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">(800) 257-7013</a></p> <p>Other questions or comments? Email us at <a href="mailto:info@cumber.com?subject=Comment" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">info@cumber.com</a> or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.</p> <p><em>Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: <a href="https://www.cumber.com/our-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/our-people/</a> </em></p> <p> </p> <hr /> <h1><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-39870" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/12/InTheNewsLarge.jpg" alt="Cumberland Advisors In The News" width="685" height="376" /></h1> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/barrons-wave-of-covid-19-bankruptcies-poses-next-threat-to-us-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Barron’s – Wave Of COVID-19 Bankruptcies Poses Next Threat To US Economy</a></h2> <p>Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 05/14/2020</p> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/robert-eisenbeis-too-early-to-tell-on-financial-relief-programs-in-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ROBERT EISENBEIS: Too early to tell on financial relief programs in pandemic</a></h2> <p>Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Posted on: 05/11/2020</p> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/illinois-to-sell-debt-as-fiscal-woes-worsen-in-coronavirus-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Illinois to sell debt as fiscal woes worsen in coronavirus outbreak</a></h2> <p>Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/07/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/illinois-to-sell-debt-as-fiscal-woes-worsen-in-coronavirus-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/bondbuyer-dislocations-in-trading-pricing-remain-in-municipal-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BondBuyer – Dislocations in trading, pricing remain in municipal market</a></h2> <p>Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 04/30/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/bondbuyer-dislocations-in-trading-pricing-remain-in-municipal-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-radio-interview-david-kotok-on-fed-news/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok on Fed News</a></h2> <p>Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 04/30/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-radio-interview-david-kotok-on-fed-news/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/heraldtribune-com-mitch-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">HeraldTribune.com – Mitch McConnell as Meredith Whitney</a></h2> <p>Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 04/27/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/heraldtribune-com-mitch-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <p><strong>More News About Cumberland Advisors Here:</strong> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/news" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/news</a></p> <hr /> <div class="post-thumbnail"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2017/03/Market-Commentary-672x245.png" alt="Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary" width="672" height="245" /></div> <div class="static_cont_outer"> <p>Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.</p> <p>To read current and past commentaries, visit <a href="https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/</a></p> </div> <p> </p> <hr /> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52180" class="post-52180 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52283" class="post-52283 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-china tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-trade-war tag-william-witherell"> <header class="entry-header"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-risking-an-investment-war-with-china/" rel="bookmark">Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Risking an Investment War with China</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> William Witherell, Ph.D., <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 15, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-risking-an-investment-war-with-china/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Risking-an-Investment-War-with-China-by-William-Witherell-Ph.D-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Risking-an-Investment-War-with-China-by-William-Witherell-Ph.D-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Risking-an-Investment-War-with-China-by-William-Witherell-Ph.D-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Risking an Investment War with China by William Witherell, Ph.D" width="672" height="372" /> </a>Not having learned the costly lessons of a US-China trade war, the US government has now taken action that risks triggering an investment war with China that could have serious negative effects on the economies of both countries at a time when each will be seeking to recover from the heavy impacts of the COVID-19 [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-risking-an-investment-war-with-china/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> <footer class="entry-meta"><span class="tag-links"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/china/" rel="tag">China</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/coronavirus/" rel="tag">Coronavirus</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/covid-19/" rel="tag">COVID-19</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/trade-war/" rel="tag">Trade War</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/william-witherell/" rel="tag">William Witherell</a></span></footer> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52264" class="post-52264 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-china tag-clinton tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-manufacturing tag-pharmaceuticals tag-puerto-rico tag-trade-war tag-wuhan"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-trump-opportunity-puerto-rico-pharma/" rel="bookmark">Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 13, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-trump-opportunity-puerto-rico-pharma/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Trump-Opportunity-Puerto-Rico-Pharma-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Trump-Opportunity-Puerto-Rico-Pharma-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Trump-Opportunity-Puerto-Rico-Pharma-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Trump Opportunity, Puerto Rico, Pharma" width="672" height="372" /> </a>My friend Dennis Gartman had a guest commentary in the wonderful and comprehensive monthly research publication offered by Gary Shilling (www.agaryshilling.com) and thoughtfully assembled and edited by Fred Rossi. I thank both Gary and Fred for permission to quote their work. Dennis wrote: “Puerto Rico shall be a huge winner, for it was only a [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-trump-opportunity-puerto-rico-pharma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> <footer class="entry-meta"><span class="tag-links"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/china/" rel="tag">China</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/clinton/" rel="tag">Clinton</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/covid-19/" rel="tag">COVID-19</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/david-r-kotok/" rel="tag">David R. Kotok</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/manufacturing/" rel="tag">Manufacturing</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/pharmaceuticals/" rel="tag">Pharmaceuticals</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/puerto-rico/" rel="tag">Puerto Rico</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/trade-war/" rel="tag">Trade War</a><a href="https://www.cumber.com/tag/wuhan/" rel="tag">Wuhan</a></span></footer> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52244" class="post-52244 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-david-r-kotok tag-doug-henwood tag-employment tag-philippa-dunne tag-tlrwire tag-unemployment"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-comments-on-april-job-losses/" rel="bookmark">Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Comments on April Job Losses</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 11, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-comments-on-april-job-losses/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-APRIL-JOB-LOSSES-TLR-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-APRIL-JOB-LOSSES-TLR-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-APRIL-JOB-LOSSES-TLR-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="APRIL JOB LOSSES - TLRwire" width="672" height="372" /> </a>Dear readers, Here’s a meaty analysis of the Friday employment report. Please note the link will take you to a $27 a month trial. After you read this report, you may find it worthwhile. Please note: I’m a paying subscriber. Enjoy. -David COMMENTS ON APRIL JOB LOSSES TLR Analytics An appalling employment report, reflecting massive [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-comments-on-april-job-losses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52236" class="post-52236 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-world-war-ii tag-wwc"> <header class="entry-header"> <h2></h2> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-readers-response-to-ww2-metaphor/" rel="bookmark">Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Readers Response to WW2 Metaphor</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 10, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-readers-response-to-ww2-metaphor/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Readers-Response-to-WW2-Metaphor-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Readers-Response-to-WW2-Metaphor-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Readers-Response-to-WW2-Metaphor-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Readers Response to WW2 Metaphor" width="672" height="372" /> </a>This Sunday morning we wish to thank readers for their many emails over the last few months. We particularly welcome the historical references and comments about our WW2 analogy for WWC, the world’s battle against COVID-19. Here are some to consider. Then we have a YouTube video for you at the end. Thank you to [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-readers-response-to-ww2-metaphor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-part-2-information-is-beautiful-early-florida-cases-or-cover-up/" rel="bookmark">Part 2: Information is Beautiful – Early Florida Cases or Cover Up?</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 7, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-part-2-information-is-beautiful-early-florida-cases-or-cover-up/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-COVID-19-The-Best-Protection-is-the-Truth-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-COVID-19-The-Best-Protection-is-the-Truth-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-COVID-19-The-Best-Protection-is-the-Truth-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="COVID-19 The Best Protection is the Truth" width="672" height="372" /> </a>As late as March 11, Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis was denying that community spread was taking place, a claim that ran directly counter to statements made the day before by Dr. Anthony Fauci of the White House COVID-19 Task Force. It is now clear, however, that behind the scenes the state was collecting data that suggested much earlier community transmission. [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-part-2-information-is-beautiful-early-florida-cases-or-cover-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued...</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52167" class="post-52167 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-wuhan"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-information-is-beautiful-and-useful/" rel="bookmark">Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 6, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-information-is-beautiful-and-useful/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Information-Is-Beautiful-And-Useful-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Information-Is-Beautiful-And-Useful-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Information-Is-Beautiful-And-Useful-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)" width="672" height="372" /> </a></p> <p>Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz for including in his daily reading list a link to a compelling and enlightening set of coronavirus infographics from Information Is Beautiful. Here is that link: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/. First, a preface. Readers please note that the statistics shown in the infographics are the “official” counts. In the US those statistics are [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-information-is-beautiful-and-useful/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52164" class="post-52164 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-black-swan tag-covid-19 tag-leo-chen-ph-d tag-skew"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-black-swan-and-skew/" rel="bookmark">Black Swan and SKEW</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> Leo Chen, Ph.D., <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 5, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-black-swan-and-skew/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Black-Swan-and-SKEW-Leo-Chen-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Black-Swan-and-SKEW-Leo-Chen-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Black-Swan-and-SKEW-Leo-Chen-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Black Swan and SKEW (Leo Chen)" width="672" height="372" /> </a>The term black swan refers to rare events that are unpredictable in nature. These events are mathematically difficult to compute and statistically insignificant. Black Monday on October 19, 1987, is a typical example. One may consider the COVID-19 pandemic a black swan as well. CBOE launched the SKEW Index in 1990, and it has been [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-black-swan-and-skew/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52153" class="post-52153 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-arsenal-of-democracy tag-bill-allen tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-world-war-ii tag-wuhan"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-good-morning-to-bill-allen/" rel="bookmark"> Good Morning to Bill Allen</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 4, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-good-morning-to-bill-allen/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Good-Morning-to-Bill-Allen-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Good-Morning-to-Bill-Allen-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Good-Morning-to-Bill-Allen-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Good Morning to Bill Allen" width="672" height="372" /> </a>Dear Readers, We would like to open our Sunday morning missive with this two minute message introduced by a prominent COVID19 survivor. We thank Christian Calgie for bringing this video to our attention: Geoffrey Cox reading Jerusalem accompanied by the orchestral music: I promise you, however prepared you think you are, it exceeds expectations. [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-good-morning-to-bill-allen/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52099" class="post-52099 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-commercial-paper-funding-facility tag-economy tag-federal-reserve tag-money-market-fund-liquidity-facility tag-paycheck-protection-program tag-ppp-liquidity-program tag-primary-dealer-credit-facility tag-robert-eisenbeis tag-term-asset-backed-securities-loan-facility"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> </header> </article> </div> <hr /> <p>Cumberland Advisors HQ is in Sarasota, Fla., and we're preparing for another hurricane season starting June 6th along with the COVID-19 precautions the rest of the country is engaged in. Here's a look back at Cumberland Advisors' small, fact-finding group that went to Key West and five other Keys that were hit by Hurricane Irma. We spoke to many locals, park officials, business owners, including numerous fishing guides that lost homes and their business assets to the immense power of Hurricane Irma. See the story here: <a href="https://www.cumber.com/florida-keys-devastation-after-hurricane-irma/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/florida-keys-devastation-after-hurricane-irma/</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.cumber.com/florida-keys-devastation-after-hurricane-irma/"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-40537 size-large" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2018/02/Florida-Keys-Fishing-Guide-Community-The-Ongoing-Impact-of-Hurricane-Irma-1024x576.jpg" alt="Immediately after Hurricane Irma’s eye passed over the Florida Keys, massive damage to the Lower and Middle Keys was apparent where hundreds of homes and businesses were destroyed by high winds and a huge storm surge." width="474" height="267" /></a></p> <hr /> <p>Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.</p> <p><strong>Sign up for our <a href="https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary-email-sign-up">FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries</a></strong></p> <p>Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.</p>

Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials. Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 11, 2020 - May 15, 2020)

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP

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