Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 04, 2020 - May 08, 2020)

Cumberland Advisors

Sun May 10, 2020

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors' continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week's short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

</p> <div id="content" class="style-scope ytd-expander"> <p>Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities. Matt McAleer and John Mousseau are both on camera today.</p> <div>John Mousseau:</div> <div>-In the Bond Market we say Treasury Yields going up and Municipal Yields coming down.</div> <div>-The Municipal Market continues to repair</div> <div>-We explain why we think that market is attractive</div> <div>-We give some thoughts on unemployment</div> <div>-What's happening with the MTA of New York? We talk about it with some detail.</div> <div>-"Well known names will soon get a decent reception, it's usually just a matter of price."</div> <div></div> <div>Matt McAleer:</div> <div>-The Market will make investors feel foolish from time to time. Why? Matt explains.</div> <div>-You main enemy as a trader, as an investor, is looking you right in the mirror!</div> <div>-Don't compartmentalize single trades.</div> <div>-"The biggest mistake an investor, or trader, or a portfolio manager can do is lose perspective and confidence in what they're trying to -accomplish with capital that they're managing."</div> <div>-Have a plan!</div> <div></div> <p>Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this week's update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: <a href="https://youtu.be/5B58mfnLovs" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://youtu.be/5B58mfnLovs</a></p> <p>Stay safe, healthy, and have a great weekend.</p> </div> <div></div> <p><em>Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:</em><br /> -Link to Matt's Email: <a href="mailto:Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com?subject=Weekly%20Update" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com</a><br /> -Link to Matt's Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4">https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4</a><br /> -Link to Matt's LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/</a><br /> -Call Matt: <a href="tel:800-257-7013p346" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">(800) 257-7013</a></p> <p>Other questions or comments? Email us at <a href="mailto:info@cumber.com?subject=Comment" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">info@cumber.com</a> or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.</p> <p><em>Contact Matt or any one of our advisors by following this link: <a href="https://www.cumber.com/our-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/our-people/</a> </em></p> <p> </p> <hr /> <h1><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-39870" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/12/InTheNewsLarge.jpg" alt="Cumberland Advisors In The News" width="685" height="376" /></h1> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/illinois-to-sell-debt-as-fiscal-woes-worsen-in-coronavirus-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Illinois to sell debt as fiscal woes worsen in coronavirus outbreak</a></h2> <p>Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 05/07/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/illinois-to-sell-debt-as-fiscal-woes-worsen-in-coronavirus-outbreak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/bondbuyer-dislocations-in-trading-pricing-remain-in-municipal-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BondBuyer – Dislocations in trading, pricing remain in municipal market</a></h2> <p>Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 04/30/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/bondbuyer-dislocations-in-trading-pricing-remain-in-municipal-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-radio-interview-david-kotok-on-fed-news/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bloomberg Radio Interview: David Kotok on Fed News</a></h2> <p>Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 04/30/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-radio-interview-david-kotok-on-fed-news/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/heraldtribune-com-mitch-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">HeraldTribune.com – Mitch McConnell as Meredith Whitney</a></h2> <p>Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Posted on: 04/27/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/heraldtribune-com-mitch-mcconnell-as-meredith-whitney/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <div class="news_row_main clearfix"> <div class="news_right"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-radio-interview-saudis-are-going-in-for-the-kill-targeting-u-s-oil-podcast/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bloomberg Radio Interview: Saudis Are Going In For The Kill, Targeting U.S. Oil (Podcast)</a></h2> <p>Quoted: David R. Kotok | Posted on: 04/22/2020 <a class="read" href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-radio-interview-saudis-are-going-in-for-the-kill-targeting-u-s-oil-podcast/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> <span class="left_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow2.png" alt="" /></span> read more <span class="right_go"><img src="https://www.cumber.com/wp-content/themes/cumberland_advisor/images/small_arrow3.png" alt="" /></span> </a></p> </div> </div> <p> </p> <p><strong>More News About Cumberland Advisors Here:</strong> <a href="https://www.cumber.com/news" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/news</a></p> <hr /> <div class="post-thumbnail"><img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2017/03/Market-Commentary-672x245.png" alt="Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary" width="672" height="245" /></div> <div class="static_cont_outer"> <p>Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.</p> <p>To read current and past commentaries, visit <a href="https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/</a></p> </div> <p> </p> <hr /> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52180" class="post-52180 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary"> <header class="entry-header"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-part-2-information-is-beautiful-early-florida-cases-or-cover-up/" rel="bookmark">Part 2: Information is Beautiful – Early Florida Cases or Cover Up?</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 7, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-part-2-information-is-beautiful-early-florida-cases-or-cover-up/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-COVID-19-The-Best-Protection-is-the-Truth-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-COVID-19-The-Best-Protection-is-the-Truth-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-COVID-19-The-Best-Protection-is-the-Truth-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="COVID-19 The Best Protection is the Truth" width="672" height="372" /> </a>As late as March 11, Fla. Gov. Ron DeSantis was denying that community spread was taking place, a claim that ran directly counter to statements made the day before by Dr. Anthony Fauci of the White House COVID-19 Task Force. It is now clear, however, that behind the scenes the state was collecting data that suggested much earlier community transmission. [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-part-2-information-is-beautiful-early-florida-cases-or-cover-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued...</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52167" class="post-52167 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-wuhan"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-information-is-beautiful-and-useful/" rel="bookmark">Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 6, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-information-is-beautiful-and-useful/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Information-Is-Beautiful-And-Useful-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Information-Is-Beautiful-And-Useful-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Cumberland-Advisors-Market-Commentary-Information-Is-Beautiful-And-Useful-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Information Is Beautiful (And Useful)" width="672" height="372" /> </a></p> <p>Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz for including in his daily reading list a link to a compelling and enlightening set of coronavirus infographics from Information Is Beautiful. Here is that link: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/. First, a preface. Readers please note that the statistics shown in the infographics are the “official” counts. In the US those statistics are [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-information-is-beautiful-and-useful/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52164" class="post-52164 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-black-swan tag-covid-19 tag-leo-chen-ph-d tag-skew"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-black-swan-and-skew/" rel="bookmark">Black Swan and SKEW</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> Leo Chen, Ph.D., <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 5, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-black-swan-and-skew/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Black-Swan-and-SKEW-Leo-Chen-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Black-Swan-and-SKEW-Leo-Chen-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Black-Swan-and-SKEW-Leo-Chen-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Black Swan and SKEW (Leo Chen)" width="672" height="372" /> </a>The term black swan refers to rare events that are unpredictable in nature. These events are mathematically difficult to compute and statistically insignificant. Black Monday on October 19, 1987, is a typical example. One may consider the COVID-19 pandemic a black swan as well. CBOE launched the SKEW Index in 1990, and it has been [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-black-swan-and-skew/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52153" class="post-52153 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-arsenal-of-democracy tag-bill-allen tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-world-war-ii tag-wuhan"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-good-morning-to-bill-allen/" rel="bookmark"> Good Morning to Bill Allen</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 4, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-good-morning-to-bill-allen/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Good-Morning-to-Bill-Allen-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Good-Morning-to-Bill-Allen-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/Guest-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Good-Morning-to-Bill-Allen-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Guest Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Good Morning to Bill Allen" width="672" height="372" /> </a>Dear Readers, We would like to open our Sunday morning missive with this two minute message introduced by a prominent COVID19 survivor. We thank Christian Calgie for bringing this video to our attention: Geoffrey Cox reading Jerusalem accompanied by the orchestral music: I promise you, however prepared you think you are, it exceeds expectations. [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-good-morning-to-bill-allen/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> <p> </p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52135" class="post-52135 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-leo-chen-ph-d tag-market-volatility tag-vix"> <header class="entry-header"> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-short-term-vs-long-term-vix/" rel="bookmark">Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> Leo Chen Ph.D., <strong>Post Date:</strong> May 1, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-short-term-vs-long-term-vix/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term-vs.-Long-Term-VIX-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term-vs.-Long-Term-VIX-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/05/CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term-vs.-Long-Term-VIX-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="CA-Market-Commentary-Short-Term vs. Long-Term VIX" width="672" height="372" /> </a></p> <p>As the equity markets rally from the March 24th bottom gains steam, the VIX volatility index has more than halved since its all-time high on March 16th. VIX hit the 80 level for the first time during the financial crisis. Unlike a decade ago, it only took a month for the VIX to drop below [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-short-term-vs-long-term-vix/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52123" class="post-52123 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-china tag-coronavirus tag-covid-19 tag-david-r-kotok tag-wuhan"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-covid-19-blame-game-part-1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> David R. Kotok, <strong>Post Date:</strong> April 30, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-covid-19-blame-game-part-1/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-Covid-19-Blame-Game-Part-1-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-Covid-19-Blame-Game-Part-1-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2020/04/Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-The-Covid-19-Blame-Game-Part-1-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Covid-19 Blame Game, Part 1" width="672" height="372" /> </a></p> <p>As the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, spread throughout China (as millions of Wuhan residents fled their city), and then found its way overseas to cause a global pandemic, pressure mounted on governments to justify their actions in response, and a blame game soon ensued, with the Chinese and US among the main players. Initially, [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-covid-19-blame-game-part-1/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <div class="categorysub"> <article id="post-52099" class="post-52099 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-market-commentary tag-commercial-paper-funding-facility tag-economy tag-federal-reserve tag-money-market-fund-liquidity-facility tag-paycheck-protection-program tag-ppp-liquidity-program tag-primary-dealer-credit-facility tag-robert-eisenbeis tag-term-asset-backed-securities-loan-facility"> <header class="entry-header"> <div class="entry-meta"></div> <h2 class="inner_text_heading"><a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-fed-and-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Fed and Markets</a></h2> <h6><strong>Author:</strong> Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., <strong>Post Date:</strong> April 28, 2020</h6> </header> <div class="entry-summary"> <p><a class="post-thumbnail" href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-fed-and-markets/"> <img class="attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image aligncenter" src="/sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/Federal-Reserve-Building-672x372.jpg" sizes="(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px" srcset="/sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/Federal-Reserve-Building-672x372.jpg 672w, /sites/default/files/uploads/2019/05/Federal-Reserve-Building-1038x576.jpg 1038w" alt="Federal Reserve Building" width="672" height="372" /> </a></p> <p>Congress and the Trump administration have embarked upon a massive federal stimulus program to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the US economy. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has stepped up to bolster financial markets, having announced, in addition to its ongoing support of the repo market, a series of ten loan [<a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-fed-and-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Continued…</a>]</p> </div> </article> </div> <hr /> <p>Summer approaches! Here at Cumberland Advisors HQ in Sarasota, Fla., it also means hurricane season is on the horizon along with a possible return of Red Tide. This natural phenomena is thought to be amplified by human activity along the Gulf of Mexico. What can be done? Lenny Landau & David R. Kotok discuss "The Puzzle of Red Tide" where Lenny brings his experience as an engineer to bear.</p> <p><iframe src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/qiiYKYVEoHk' allowfullscreen /></p> <hr /> <p>Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.</p> <p><strong>Sign up for our <a href="https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary-email-sign-up">FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries</a></strong></p> <p>Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.</p>

Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials. Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 04, 2020 - May 08, 2020)

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS' WEEKLY RECAP

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