The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.
The Cumberland Advisors May 07, 2021 end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer, David Kotok, & Patricia Healy, CFA follows.
Matt McAleer on Equities / ETFs
- Awful idea to remove IP protection for COVID Vaccines.
- Unemployment? Matt gives his take.
- What was working this week? Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials.
- We're seeing demand behind any pullbacks.
- Bonds? A little weakness in yields, Patty Healy will detail.
- John Mousseau is in the air! Things are starting to get back to normal with our CEO back on the road. We expect him to go on video next week.
- Our US ETF Strategy bought a little more biotech this week after a selloff in the market. Matt explains.
- Something to ponder: imagine another pandemic in 5-10 years from now if IP protection were stripped from current companies.
David Kotok on the Economy & Vaccine IP
- Terrific opportunity to join Matt McAleer today in the office and join him for a video segment.
- The market was surprised by the latest employment numbers. We were not. COVID has caused a massive shock and the numbers fall within what we expect.
- Lots of headlines around giving up intellectual property protection for vaccines. We published a commentary this morning and go into some detail. You can read, " Patents, Vaccines & COVID Policy " at this link: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/patents-vaccines-covid-policy
- Of essential note: Moderna gave up their IP protection in October 2020 but it resulted in no additional vaccine. It requires a huge complex of materials, skills, assembly, production, and distribution to produce additional vaccine. So nothing gained but a feel-good headline.
- If it were to succeed? Many potential downsides. David details.
Patricia Healy on Fixed Income / Munis
- Bond market? A bit crazy this week from statements originating with Janet Yellen and The Fed.
- Jobless claims were seen as good news.
- Pres. Biden's IP talk caused a lot of stir.
- Job numbers were not welcome news but a silver lining: a labor participation rate increase to 61.7% and productivity increased too.
- Ups and downs in the bond markets this week, Patty provides numbers.
- We're expecting a return to normalcy with widespread vaccination though there will be hiccups on our journey back toward a pre-COVID lifestyle.
- Patty talks about Muni/Treasury ratios, yields, and spreads.
- We appreciate any feedback so send us your comments and questions.
HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY FROM ALL OF US
AT CUMBERLAND ADVISORS!
________________________________________
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/BMicUii4a3A
Have a great weekend and thanks for tuning in,
-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors
Please continue to send Matt any feedback from today's or prior emails/videos. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
POLITICO | Politico Morning Money May 07, 2021
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Fri May 7, 2021
PATENTS PUSH-BACK — Cumberland’s David Kotok emails: “Biden pivot on patent suspension instead of negotiated licensing is disastrous for technology innovation and investment of all types, not just biotech.
"This is a ‘taking’ by a non-judicial use of eminent domain. It defeats public health and gives a win to the anti vax cohort. Would you invest billions in a booster under such conditions?”
Bloomberg | The Most Important Number of the Week Is 6.4%
Quoted: David R. Kotok | Sat May 1, 2021
Some economists and investors have started to turn their attention to the long-term effects of the pandemic on the economy. The early research suggests those forecasting a new “Roaring ‘20s” may be disappointed.
Cumberland Advisors Inc. co-founder and Chief Investment Officer David Kotok took the concept of excess deaths one step further in a research note to clients this week. He pointed out that each excess death results in a computation known as years of life lost, or YLL. A study published in the Journal of Public Health last month estimated there were 9.2 YLLs per death.
Mallouk: Capital Gains Tax Hike Could 'Devastate' Hedge Funds, Boost DAFs
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Tue April 27, 2021
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced his American Families Plan, which includes not only a proposed increase in the top marginal tax rate for those earning more than $400,000 but also a capital gains tax increase for investors earning more than $1 million a year.
Demand for municipal bonds could also rise if the capital gains tax hike for wealthy investors is implemented. Continued...
NJ a blow out, ICI reports more inflows, but weaker tone persists
Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA | Wed April 28, 2021
Traders said the New Jersey deal largely set the tone for the market.
A New York trader said there was strong demand for the forward delivery bonds, which are rated Baa1 by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB by Standard & Poor’s.
“The fact that it's a lower-rated transaction is interesting because typically forwards are in the single or double-A rated category,” Continued...
Upcoming Event
Leo Chen to speak at "The MoneyShow Orlando 2021"
The MoneyShow will hold their first face-to-face event since the start of the pandemic this June and they are featuring Cumberland Advisors' Leo Chen, Ph.D.
Dr. Chen will speak about Market Volatility and Leverage during his 45 minute presentation at "The MoneyShow Orlando 2021" where he joins many others within the finance industry for a day of talks and networking right in our backyard of Florida.
Leo Chen, Ph.D.
Topic: Market Volatility and Leverage
Saturday, June 12, 2021
10:45 AM - 11:30 AM
Learn more about this event at The MoneyShow Website.
Learn more about Leo here: https://www.cumber.com/team/leo-chen-phd
Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.
