Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 17, 2019 - Jun 21, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors

Sun Jun 23, 2019

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

** MATT MCALEER'S WEEKLY RECAP **

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Matt McAleer is out of the office this Friday. Gabriel Hament stands in with a quick update.

- Happy First Day of Summer!
- Do you have questions regarding markets, trade, the economy, banking, or anything finance related? Send them our way and we'll pass them on to David who is up at Camp Kotok for the June 2019 session. David is leading discussions when not fishing in an environment that invites dialogue and collisions between folks from different parts of the finance world giving them opportunities to hone and expand their perspectives under the Chatham House rule.
- We invite you to submit questions you have about your personal holdings. We'll get back to you and share our thoughts and ideas about how a Cumberland investment strategy may fit in your your personal financial picture.
- We're honored and excited to share with you our news: Cumberland Advisors was selected as the 2019 winner within the Professional Services category at the Sarasota Chamber of Commerce's 29th Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards. Read about it here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-news-professional-services-business-of-the-year-award/

Watch below or at these links:

- Weekly Update: https://youtu.be/qgHyPSM4V6o
- Award News: https://youtu.be/3bzvYK3K4OA

Have a great weekend and a great start to your summer!

https://youtu.be/qgHyPSM4V6o

** LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY (https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/)
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2Q 2019

Review: International Equity ETF https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-2q-2019-review-international-equity-etf/
William Witherell, Ph.D. 06/20/2019

Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 2Q 2019 Review: Rising VIX https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-market-volatility-etf-portfolio-2q-2019-review-rising-vix/
Leo Chen, Ph.D. 06/19/2019

Happy Anniversary! https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/
David R. Kotok 06/18/2019

Turandot https://www.cumber.com/turandot/
David R. Kotok 06/13/2019

What Does “Data-Dependent” Mean? https://www.cumber.com/what-does-data-dependent-mean/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 06/12/2019

2% or 2% or -0.2%? https://www.cumber.com/2-or-2-or-0-2/
David R. Kotok 06/10/2019

Peter Navarro https://www.cumber.com/peter-navarro/
David R. Kotok 06/07/2019

More on Tariffs https://www.cumber.com/more-on-tariffs/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 06/06/2019

Jingoism & Rare Earths https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/
David R. Kotok 06/05/2019

EU Election: Negative But Could Have Been Worse https://www.cumber.com/eu-election-negative-but-could-have-been-worse/
William Witherell, Ph.D. 06/03/2019

Fed and Climate Change https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fed-and-climate-change/
David R. Kotok 05/30/2019

May FOMC Minutes: Patience https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-may-fomc-minutes-patience/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/21/2019

Memorial Day Reflections https://www.cumber.com/memorial-day-reflections/
David R. Kotok 05/27/2019

5G, Huawei, Trade War, Shooting War https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-5g-huawei-trade-war-shooting-war/
David R. Kotok 05/23/2019

Finally, Some Positive Trade News https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-finally-some-positive-trade-news/
William Witherell, Ph.D. 05/21/2019

“Nations, Wars and Liberal Democracy” by George Friedman https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nations-wars-and-liberal-democracy-by-george-friedman/
George Friedman 05/20/2019

Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-tariffs-macroeconomic-versus-microeconomic-effects-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/17/2019

Robert Brusca Ph.D. on Tariffs, Trade, and the Fed https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-robert-brusca-ph-d-on-tariffs-trade-and-the-fed/
Robert Brusca, Ph.D. 05/14/2019

White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/
David R. Kotok 05/13/2019

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On Friday, June 14, 2019, business and community leaders gathered for the 29th Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards (<a href="https://www.sarasotachamber.com/small-business-awards.html">https://www.sarasotachamber.com/small-business-awards.html</a>) , in Sarasota, Fla. Three finalists were selected across five categories: Hospitality and Tourism, Non-Profit, Products and Services, Retail and Professional Services. We are honored to share that Cumberland Advisors was selected as the winner within the Professional Services category. <hr /> IN THE NEWS Barron's - Gold Is Surging. How to Play It With ETFs <a href="https://www.cumber.com/gold-is-surging-how-to-play-it-with-etfs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/gold-is-surging-how-to-play-it-with-etfs/</a> Quoted: David Kotok 06/21/2019 Sarasota Herald-Tribune - USF Sarasota-Manatee scholarship to assist Visible Men Academy graduates <a href="https://www.cumber.com/usf-sarasota-manatee-scholarship-to-assist-visible-men-academy-graduates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/usf-sarasota-manatee-scholarship-to-assist-visible-men-academy-graduates/</a> Quoted: David Kotok 06/21/2019 Sarasota Chamber of Commerce - Cumberland Advisors News – Professional Services Business of the Year Award <a href="https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-news-professional-services-business-of-the-year-award/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-news-professional-services-business-of-the-year-award/</a> Quoted: Cumberland Advisors 06/21/2019 Barron's - Too Many Uncertainties <a href="https://www.cumber.com/too-many-uncertainties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/too-many-uncertainties/</a> Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. 06/21/2019 POLITICO - Trump revs up his Wayback Machine <a href="https://www.cumber.com/trump-revs-up-his-wayback-machine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/trump-revs-up-his-wayback-machine/</a> Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 06/20/2019 The Market Expects the Fed to Do Its Duty <a href="https://www.cumber.com/the-market-expects-the-fed-to-do-its-duty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/the-market-expects-the-fed-to-do-its-duty/</a> Quoted: David Kotok 06/14/2019 Bond Buyer - Municipal calendar grows to $7B as the summer reinvestment season arrives <a href="https://www.cumber.com/how-federal-tax-reform-has-impacted-real-estate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/how-federal-tax-reform-has-impacted-real-estate/</a> Quoted: John R. Mousseau 05/30/2019 AdvisorHub - Large-Cap Growth Stocks Still Hold Luster <a href="https://www.cumber.com/large-cap-growth-stocks-still-hold-luster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/large-cap-growth-stocks-still-hold-luster/</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/31/2019 POLITICO - Trump’s two-front trade war triggers alarms <a href="https://www.cumber.com/trumps-two-front-trade-war-triggers-alarms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/trumps-two-front-trade-war-triggers-alarms/</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/31/2019 Bloomberg - Trade War’s Hammerlock on Bond Market Puts Lower Yields in Sight <a href="https://www.cumber.com/trade-wars-hammerlock-on-bond-market-puts-lower-yields-in-sight/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/trade-wars-hammerlock-on-bond-market-puts-lower-yields-in-sight/</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/18/2019 CNN Business - Why the US-China trade war won’t last <a href="https://www.cumber.com/why-the-us-china-trade-war-wont-last/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/why-the-us-china-trade-war-wont-last/</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/14/2019 POLITICO - Markets freak (a little ) <a href="https://www.cumber.com/markets-freak-a-little/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/markets-freak-a-little/</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/08/2019 Bloomberg Radio - Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Wear a Helmet When Doing Falconry With These Hawks <a href="https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-daybreak-asia-wear-a-helmet-when-doing-falconry-with-these-hawks-radio/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-daybreak-asia-wear-a-helmet-when-doing-falconry-with-these-hawks-radio/</a> Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/06/2019 Bloomberg Radio - The Fed Decides <a href="https://www.cumber.com/the-fed-decides-radio-podcast-bob-eisenbeis-on-bloomberg-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/the-fed-decides-radio-podcast-bob-eisenbeis-on-bloomberg-markets/</a> Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/02/2019 WisdomTree - A Unique Lens on Risk Management <a href="https://www.cumber.com/a-unique-lens-on-risk-management/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">https://www.cumber.com/a-unique-lens-on-risk-management/</a> Quoted: Matt McAleer 05/01/2019 <hr /> FEATURED INTERVIEWS Join David Kotok for recent interviews with Bloomberg & Yahoo Finance. <a href="https://www.cumber.com/recent-tv-appearances/">https://www.cumber.com/recent-tv-appearances/</a> <hr /> IN CASE YOU MISSED IT... Coping with Geopolitical Risk: The Case of South Korea by David R. Kotok May 28, 2010 ------------------------------------------------------------ Tensions have reemerged and reached a new peak on the Korean peninsula, following the sinking of a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 sailors, after it was struck by a North Korean torpedo. South Korea moved to cut trade with the North by 50%, denied North Korean ships the use of its sea lanes, and designated the North as its “principal enemy,” a term that has not been used during the past six years of detente. South Korea is calling upon the UN to censure North Korea. The US and South Korea have announced major combined naval exercises. Finally, in what can only be considered a symbolic move, the South has resumed broadcasting propaganda songs across the border. In response, the North banned South Korean ships and planes from using its airspace and sea lanes, said it was cutting all ties with the South, and will expel all South Korean officials from a joint industrial park in the North. Ominously, there are reports that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il has ordered the North Korean military to be ready for war. In the most recent escalation of tensions, North Korea threatened to scrap all “military assurance agreements” with South Korea. These agreements are safeguards against accidental armed clashes. They also protect the safety of South Korean workers in that industrial enclave in the North. U.S. and South Korean forces have elevated their five-step alert level by one step to the second highest level. Continued: <a href="https://www.cumber.com/coping-with-geopolitical-risk-the-case-of-south-korea/">https://www.cumber.com/coping-with-geopolitical-risk-the-case-of-south-korea/</a> <hr /> UPCOMING EVENTS Our friends at The Global Interdependence Center (GIC) host conferences around the world with an emphasis on stimulating thoughtful, global dialogue on a wide range of issues that affect the international community. This June and July they're featuring two of our folks from Cumberland Advisors. On Monday, June 24, 2019, The Global Interdependence Center is returning to Chicago, IL for a conference with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to discuss topics such as monetary policy, trade, manufacturing, productivity and labor force issues and to hear a keynote address on globalization by Catherine L. Mann, Ph.D., Global Chief Economist, Citi. John Mousseau will speak during the State of the State’s Fiscal Challenges panel session. On Thursday, July 11, 2019, at Victor, ID, The Global Interdependence Center and the Bronze Buffalo Foundation gather economists, bankers, academics, and finance industry representatives just outside of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Eleventh Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit will bring together economists and entrepreneurs from around the country to discuss issues and opportunities relating to the global economy, featuring a talk with David R. Kotok and a keynote address delivered by Tom Barkin, the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. You're invited to join John or David at one of the above events and cost and registration details can be found here: <a href="https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/">https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/</a> See the original formatted Week in Review post at our Email Newsletter site and feel free to share your comments regarding this post or others: <a href="https://us8.campaign-archive.com/?u=d6f020f3bd6a1e2c4eb254e6c&id=f01d7cfd44">https://us8.campaign-archive.com/?u=d6f020f3bd6a1e2c4eb254e6c&id=f01d7cfd44</a>

Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials. Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 17, 2019 - Jun 21, 2019)

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