Thank you for joining Cumberland Advisors for this April 09, 2021 end-of-week update on market conditions, bonds & equities with Matt McAleer & John Mousseau, CFA.
John Mousseau on Fixed Income / Munis
- Somewhat quiet week in bond market, not a lot of volatility. John provides numbers.
- Some disappointment in employment numbers affecting yields until today
- Yields came back and we have a chart to share with you about the correlation
- Do we see a trend? Maybe in the short term.
- We're well off the bottom of where inflation hit last year.
- Muni yields? Down this week. Why? Probability of future tax hike. John adds color.
- We see a clear amount of demand for munis.
- John provides the Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority as an example and the 1.8 billion they're bringing to market with some history and comparative context along with why we barbell and thoughts on risk.
- Enjoy the Masters and some return of normality.
Matt McAleer on Equities / ETFs and a theme of "Flexibility"
- Good bid back in large cap growth
- We have four charts/slides to share today
- Matt takes us through the charts and a discussion on performance over different timelines and what causes him to do a double take.
- Beware recency bias!
- Matt talks again about our "barbell" approach.
- Stay flexible, we'll talk next week.
Please reach out with any questions/comments you may have about this update; we appreciate your calls, comments, and emails. Watch in the player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/tBRlr_mIQSY
Have a great weekend and thanks for tuning in,
-Matt McAleer & Cumberland Advisors
Please continue to send Matt any feedback from today's or prior emails/videos. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt's Email: [email protected]
-Link to Matt's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013
Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013.
David Kotok, chairman of the board & chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the market outlook ahead of earnings season and growth expectations.
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/america-solid-foundation-sustain-growth-150743967.html
Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Suffered the Brunt of the Selling
by Max Chen - March 23, 2021
After NFT Surge, Traders Worry Reopening Will Stifle Rally - About $1.3 billion of nonfungible tokens have traded through ethereum network this year, dwarfing 2020 activity
Quoted: David R. Kotok - March 31, 2021
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-nft-surge-traders-worry-reopening-will-stifle-rally-11617183002
CUMBERLAND COMMENT: The bond market's 'return to normalcy.
by John Mousseau - April 05, 2021
Confidence in a Robust Eurozone Recovery Grows Despite Rising COVID Infections and Deaths
Author(s): William H. Witherell, Ph.D. | Fri April 9, 2021
The European Commission’s Economic and Sentiment Indicator (ESI), produced by the Business and Consumer Survey, advanced sharply above its long-term average in March. The advance was broad-based, including the important and hard-hit service sector. Consumer confidence also advanced,…
HY-TSY Spreads & Stocks
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Thu April 8, 2021
Credit spreads have just reached a new low number. Here’s a link to the St. Louis Fed’s report on the high-yield (HY) spread to US Treasury riskless counterparts. Readers are invited to spend a few minutes at the link and to read the definitions.
Q1 2021 Credit Commentary: Back to the Past?
Author(s): Patricia M. Healy, CFA | Wed April 7, 2021
Are we going to go back to the past, as economies around the world open and vaccinations and herd immunity take hold? Many activities will return to how they were before the pandemic struck, but others may be changed markedly forever – such as shopping, education, telehealth, cyber…
Employment – March
Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Tue April 6, 2021
The creation of 916,000 jobs in the month of March is truly impressive and a sign of a rebound in the nation’s economy, bringing the total for the first quarter to 1.6 million jobs. The March number far exceeds the 647,000 jobs predicted by economists (https://www.reuters.com/article/…
Earnings and Stocks: Trend is Up
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon April 5, 2021
Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse sent an April 1 public market note. He said: “With multiples stable, the market’s entire advance can be explained by improving earnings.” We agree. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is essentially unchanged for the last three quarters. We also agree that it is…
American Jobs Plan
Author(s): Patricia M. Healy, CFA | Mon April 5, 2021
On Wednesday, President Biden introduced the first of two infrastructure plans as part of his Build Back Better initiative: the American Jobs Plan. The second plan, the American Families Plan, has not yet been formally proposed. The two plans are reported to total up to $4 trillion, cover more…
Ten Plagues & COVID
Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun April 4, 2021
Image Leonardo di Vinci’s mural of the Last Supper was painted on the wall in the refectory of the Santa Maria delle Grazie in Milan between 1495 and 1498. (La Salle University Digital Commons)
Perhaps the single greatest work…
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