Excerpt from "The Most Important Number of the Week Is 6.4%" by Robert Burgess

Some economists and investors have started to turn their attention to the long-term effects of the pandemic on the economy. The early research suggests those forecasting a new “Roaring ‘20s” may be disappointed.

Cumberland Advisors Inc. co-founder and Chief Investment Officer David Kotok took the concept of excess deaths one step further in a research note to clients this week. He pointed out that each excess death results in a computation known as years of life lost, or YLL. A study published in the Journal of Public Health last month estimated there were 9.2 YLLs per death

Sure, Covid-19 has impacted the elderly disproportionately, with those 65 and over accounting for 80% of deaths and therefor contributing relatively little to YLL. But that’s still means a not insignificant 20% are under the age of 65. Cumberland estimates a Covid-19 shock of about 10 million YLL in the U.S. by the end of this year, contributing to a lasting economic “demand shock” that will act as a drag on growth.

Continued at Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-01/the-most-important-number-of-the-week-is-6-4?sref=XreMbXAF

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David R. Kotok
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