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Ukraine: What's Next? - Part 1

David R. Kotok
Sun May 15, 2022

Manatee Educational Television (METV) and the University of South Florida are in the process of airing a five-part series, “Ukraine: What’s Next?” Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and supporter, and the Global Interdependence Center is a program partner.

 

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Ukraine What's Next Part 1, by David R. Kotok

 


 Part 1, “Military and Intelligence Insights,” aired on Wednesday, April 13, and can be viewed at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia3FUtifriU.

 


We strongly recommend that readers take the time to watch. Note that the first 10 minutes is the introduction. The program that follows runs about 2.5 hours. In the first segment, as background, Dr. Golfo Alexopoulus, Director of the USF Institute on Russia, offers an invaluable history lesson in her presentation on “Contested Histories: Ukraine, Putin, and Russia’s ‘Special Operation’ of ‘Denazification.’” She observes that Putin’s war against Ukraine is, foremost, “a war about history and identity.” While Putin believes that Ukraine should rightfully be a part of Russia again, Russian nationalists misread how Ukrainians see their own history and identity. She concludes that any peaceful negotiation is unlikely, as Putin is following the Soviet and Stalinist playbook. This is a must-see segment.
 
The keynote speaker who follows is General Phil Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander of Europe (SACEUR), a position which put him in charge of NATO’s military operations. General Breedlove also commanded at every level in the Air Force and retired as a four-star general. In his opening remarks, General Breedlove affirms the importance of understanding that the war in Ukraine is “a conflict contrived by Putin for a purpose, and that purpose is to change the face of Europe.” Putin’s ultimate aim, General Breedlove explains, is to redefine the security architecture of Eastern Europe to reassert Russian dominance there. He also delves into how the West misread Putin and how Putin misread Ukraine, concluding that US responses intended to defer the conflict (or to end it) have been “inadequate to task,” and he looks at the question of what it will take to change Vladimir Putin’s behavior.
 
An extensive Q&A follows, with questions sequenced by Major General David “Scott” Gray, who moderates the program. The first question General Gray poses to General Breedlove is, “Are we deterred?” Again, the deep insights shared here are not to be missed.
 
General Breedlove’s segment is followed by a conversation among this panel of participants:
 
Maj. General Gray, USAF, retired (moderator)
Lt. General David Deptula, USAF, retired
Dr. Ron Sanders, Staff Director, Florida Center for Cyber Security
Serge Jorgensen, Founding Partner and CTO, Sylint
Luke Bencie, Managing Director, Security Management International
 
The in-depth program delivers a host of insights vital to assessing the level and the duration of risk that the war — and Putin’s agenda beyond Ukraine — poses to Europe and to the world and its markets.
 
Again, here’s the program link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia3FUtifriU.
 
We will post links to replays of parts 2–4, below, as those become available.
 
Part 2: “Financial and Economic Impacts” (April 27)


Part 3: “Cyber Security Analysis” (May 10)

Part 4: “Diplomatic and Humanitarian Aspects” (May 24)

 
In the meantime, tickets for the virtual programs yet to be aired in the series are available here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ukraine-whats-next-tickets-333787847437.
 

David R. Kotok
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio

 


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