We thank readers for their responses to Holodomor (https://cumber.com/market-commentary/holodomor). We’re sharing some of them below.
Another David wrote:
According to this morning’s WSJ, the next month will be a tipping point so we need to get these weapons to the Ukrainians ASAP! I hope the administration acts with a sense of urgency.
Fred raised the issue of China and trade and transportation. He offered this analysis.
China was heavily investing in a trade hub in Belarus (for trade with Northern Europe) that now looks unreliable. All northern roads and rails from China to Western Europe must at least go through Russia to get to the Black Sea. Putin is thus seeking to control all access China gets to the Black Sea (by routes north of the Caspian Sea) if it [Russia] “just” takes everything in Ukraine from Odessa east. The next maritime access path for goods to get to Southern Europe is Constanta, Romania, via the canal that Ceausescu built. That’s not a convenient route. It was built to give Romania better Black Sea access if it fought the USSR (like the old canal crossing Ontario, in case of war with the US). In short, however, it seems Belarus and Russia are setting up to control China’s access to Europe via land routes north of the Caspian Sea. To go south of the Caspian, China must go through Iran. Until Putin attacked Ukraine, once China trade got past Russia the choice of routes was through Ukraine or Belarus. That gave Xi at least a duopoly for land access to western democracies (the delivery goal of any trade policy, since that’s where real buyers live). Russia’s attack goals would cut Ukraine out. Kicking Russia and Belarus out of Ukraine still gives trade power to Russia and Kazahkstan, but Ukraine had ports to ship via the sea to all areas of Europe south of the Alps and south of the Mediterranean. So, it seems rather clear to me that a lot of Putin’s playbook is directed at control of Xi’s belt and road, in addition to control of natural resources in Eastern Ukraine and Ukraine’s grain sales.
Larry wrote:
I am discouraged, disgusted, dismayed, and disappointed about Ukraine.
We received a history lesson from a retired professor:
Your note gives reason to the fight, and that past reminds all of us that this is about ending evil authoritarian. As I recall this debate dates at least to Socrates, who found the best governance was a “benevolent dictator” (e. g., possibly Solon) and Plato, who essentially responded that was an oxymoron. In business we tolerate a bunch of competing dictators leading firms because we know that the truly bad ones eventually go broke. In governance, Stalin and Putin remind us that absolute power corrupts absolutely and must end. I highly recommend the 2019 movie, “Mr. Jones.” It is the tale of Gareth Jones and how he became the only Western reporter to document the Holodomor as other journalists in Moscow were being partied into Stalin’s lies. One of his detractors, I recall, was a NY Times reporter who won a major award based partly on his “refutation” of Jones. I have come to believe Holodomor proves Plato’s refutation of Socrates. Democracy is often crazy, but never as bad as the absolute disaster of absolute control.
Philippa sent this link about national parks and animals in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Nature Conservation Group: “Saving Wildlife in Time of War Together,” https://uncg.org.ua/en/ .
Readers are reminded that Ukraine is about the size of Texas in square miles.
John responded:
Amazing how brave and committed the Ukrainian Nationals are. I just wish that the NATO Allies would get the necessary materials into the Ukraine more rapidly. Too much bureaucracy involved, in an extremely time sensitive environment. I too have Ukrainian Flags.
Paul sent a thoughtful summary of what is at stake for Putin.
1. If Putin can get what he wants without negotiation, he takes it. 2. He takes whatever he wants by force. 3. His troops have failed. So they have taken revenge against helpless civilians. 4. Putin is currently withdrawing his army & is firing heavy artillery for cover. 5. Putin does not consider international law or humanitarian needs as restrictions. 6. Murder, starvation, disease & genocide are weapons he often uses for victory. 7. Putin is a tyrant and will double down repeatedly to make his enemy break. 8. The 1 thing that will force negotiations is weakness — if he thinks he might lose! 9. Ukraine must fight until that moment comes — or lose everything! 10. Zelensky has nothing to offer to Putin except surrender & he will not do that. 11. Zelensky can negotiate when AFRF IS back in RUS and RUS is BANKRUPT. 12. An open negotiating process is good: at right moments, a coms link is open. 13. The West must continue to support Ukraine while containing violence. 14. Russians can save themselves from falling back 50 years by removing Putin. 15. War continues until it’s too expensive in blood and treasure for Putin to stay. 16. Civil wars normally end when both sides are exhausted.
Tom wrote:
Thanks for sharing this on Putin’s mentors, Stalin’s “Holodomor” — especially as genocide atrocities are now photo-documented in Bucha. IMHO, all NATO allies & friendlies should boycott Russian oil & execute a modern-day ‘Berlin Airlift’ (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_Blockade) — while also covertly delivering the approved defensive weaponry and OTJ ‘training’ by covert SpecOps.
(End Comments)
A number of folks asked about charity and how to proceed with contributions. Here’s a link to WABC New York’s list accompanying their program dedicated to Ukrainian support organizations: https://abc7ny.com/how-to-help-ukraine-american-red-cross-unicef-refugees/11617181/. We have not proofed their list.
You might also check Charity Navigator (https://www.charitynavigator.org) for ratings or Charity Watch (https://www.charitywatch.org). Your local community foundation may have a recommendation, as might folks you know in a local or nearby Ukrainian expat community. We always advise that a charity be researched carefully.
One exchange I had was about protecting journalists. Here’s a story about how journalists are being treated in Russia. They’re leaving. “The Day Foreign Journalists Felt Forced to Leave Moscow,” https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-communications/the-day-foreign-journalists-felt-forced-to-leave-moscow. And here’s a link to the Committee to Protect Journalists website: https://cpj.org.
Note that fake news about the Red Cross is circulating among the usual perpetrators of pernicious lies: “Disinformation endangering Red Cross work in Ukraine: ICRC,” https://sg.news.yahoo.com/disinformation-endangering-red-cross-ukraine-122116541.html.
Some readers asked about sanctions. Here’s a link to the Conference Board report on Russia sanctions: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/geopolitics/russian-sanctions-to-date.
The Economist ran this story: “Why are so many Russian generals dying in Ukraine?” https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/03/31/why-are-so-many-russian-generals-dying-in-ukraine.
Readers asked about the 15,000 dead Russian soldiers and what the impact will be in Russia when they are found to be dead. (See “Ukraine’s president tells The Economist why Vladimir Putin must be defeated,” https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/04/02/ukraines-president-tells-the-economist-why-vladimir-putin-must-be-defeated.) Putin is a tyrant, so we have no answer unless he is deposed. We’re watching what happens as the next Russian conscription starts and the greater population of Russia finds out the truth about Putin’s war.
The issue of radiation is a serious one. Vadim Chumak, head of the external exposure dosimetry lab at Ukraine’s National Research Center for Radiation Medicine in the country’s capital, Kyiv, interviewed for MIT Technology Review, recently pointed out the risks Russia’s reckless war poses in Ukraine: “What is the risk of a nuclear accident in Ukraine? A radiation expert speaks from Kyiv,” https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/03/25/1048297/nuclear-risk-in-ukraine-a-radiation-expert-speaks-from-kyiv/. The story of Russian soldiers kidnapping Ukraine’s Chernobyl security protection team in March only highlights those risks: “Ukraine war: Chernobyl workers' 12-day ordeal under Russian guard,” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60638949. Recently, there have been reports about Russian soldiers suffering radiation sickness after they attacked Chernobyl. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) plans to investigate conditions at the decommissioned nuclear plant. (“UN nuclear watchdog to head mission to Chernobyl as Russians withdraw from site,” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/01/russians-fled-chernobyl-with-radiation-sickness-says-ukraine-as-iaea-investigates)
Finally, for a review of the scenarios if there is no regime change in Russia, we recommend this column by Niall Ferguson,
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-03/niall-ferguson-7-worst-case-scenarios-from-putin-s-ukraine-war.
David R. Kotok
Chairman & Chief Investment Officer
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