Cumberland Advisors' Week in Review (Aug 14 - Aug 18, 2023)

Cumberland Advisors

Sat Aug 19, 2023

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest is a compendium of news, commentary, and opinion from or of interest to our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may include older and/or guest commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

The latest Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review Video is now available online. Our end-of-week update on markets generally features equities, bonds, and trading highlights.

Thank you for joining us.

Watch the latest update on YouTube: Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review

Access past video updates including the most recent via this YouTube Playlist URL: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLu1JZIQ1mPrtx_q7i_C9FWN-cb9f594C1

Please send any feedback from today’s email/video to Matt McAleer. You can reach him at:
Email: [email protected]
Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewcmcaleer
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
Call Matt: (800) 257-7013 ext. 346

Other questions or comments? Email us at [email protected] or give us a call at (800) 257-7013

Have a great weekend,
Cumberland Advisors

Catch up on recent Market Commentaries
from Cumberland Advisors

https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary

Cumberland Advisors In the News

The debt ceiling standoff may cost us $1 trillion
By Rick Newman - Yahoo News - Tue, August 15, 2023

Excerpt follows:

The 2023 debt ceiling standoff is over. The consequences are not.

It may seem like every debt ceiling showdown follows a standard script, with everything going back to normal once the foolish drama is over.

The basic plot: With the nation’s borrowing limit set by law and federal borrowing going ever higher, Congress has to raise the limit every couple of years. Republicans, if they have the votes, insist on spending cuts as a condition of allowing the government to borrow more. There’s intense bargaining and overheated talk of a possible US default on some of its obligations. That briefly unnerves financial markets.

During the next 10 years, higher interest rates due solely to Congressional budget shenanigans could raise borrowing costs in the United States by nearly $1 trillion, according to new research by David Kotok, chief investment officer of investing firm Cumberland Advisors. While that's a large price tag, the costs are likely to be spread broadly across the economy in ways likely to allow the perpetrators in Congress to escape accountability.

Kotok looks at the cost of credit-default swaps on US Treasuries to assess higher borrowing costs throughout the US economy. A credit-default swap, or CDS, is like an insurance policy on a bond. The holder of a bond sometimes wants to cover the risk that the issuer will default and fail to pay the interest or principal. Other investors offer CDSs that will cover losses at prices the market determines.

Full story: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-debt-ceiling-standoff-may-cost-us-1-trillion-164009789.html

Cumberland Advisors’ Private Wealth Practice offers institutional-level money management for individual investors. We have a multi-decade history of service to institutional clients – independent non-profits, foundations, qualified retirement plans, and government entities. As a private investor, you can leverage that same expertise in the management of your portfolio. More information is available at our website and in our private wealth digital brochure.

Camp Kotok Corner

Perspectives, News, and/or Resources from Attendees

Stuart G. Hoffman is senior economic advisor for The PNC Financial Services Group & David Berson, Cumberland Advisors' Chief US Economist, converse about the Fitch downgrade of US debt, inflation, and what Stu anticipates the Fed's responses will be in the short-term and the long-term. What if oil spikes? Listen in!

VIDEO LINK: https://youtu.be/GDCdeNNhq1I

Vance Barse, wealth strategist & founder of Your Dedicated Fiduciary, and David R. Kotok, cofounder & chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discuss advanced planning aspects of wealth management, philanthropy and how to do it correctly, the Fitch downgrade, "transitory" inflation, tax-equivalent yield, and the day fishing.

Thanks for joining us at Camp Kotok!

VIDEO LINK: https://youtu.be/FX5ejizaZow

Please enjoy the following list of resources relating to Camp Kotok and recommended by attendees.

Camp Kotok Articles:

Dave Nadig, VettaFi: In the Canoe is Where We Learn
Michael Drury, McVean Trading : Weekly Economic Update
Sam Rines, CORBU: PolyMacro | The Main(e) Lines
Rick Newman, Yahoo! Finance: The debt ceiling standoff may have cost $1 trillion

Forward Guidance Podcast by Jack Farley featuring the following Camp Kotok Guests:

- David Kotok: https://open.spotify.com/episode/67VqKBSwKrCerpDrBgVp9d
- Dennis Lockhart: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0qzoWsF8AQxaDfX0LGxc2U
- Leland Miller: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4lSa7X5XcWv7elBc4umrcB
- Sam Rines and Jim Bianco: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2JD3qsVp8oNGuUYLcbisFw
- Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0qmOhlKRMFgkOoFSlbgt29

We thank Jillian Fornito, executive director at the Global Interdependence Center,
for compiling these lists of Camp Kotok attendee related content.

Cumberland Advisors is an annual sponsor of the Global Interdependence Center.

Friday, September 29, 2023 Montreal, Quebec: How to (and not to) Regulate Crypto Partner: McGill Desmarais Global Finance Research Centre

Montréal in September

This conference brings together thought leaders and decision-makers from academia, public policy circles, and the business world with the goal to promote thought exchange, dialogue, and the exploration of solutions to global challenges in finance and economics. Professor Christine Parlour, Sylvan C. Coleman Chair of Finance and Accounting at Berkeley Haas, is a Keynote speaker.

Sunday, October 22 - Saturday, October 28, 2023 Warsaw, Rzeszow, and Krakow, Poland: GIC’s Delegation to Poland

Delegation to Poland in October

Poland’s geographic position relative to Ukraine is of growing international interest, making this second visit to the country a natural destination for GIC members and guests. This powerful experience is designed to give delegates exclusive insights into Poland’s dynamic economy, rich cultural history, and growing geopolitical importance. The delegation’s objectives are to explore Poland’s shifting economic landscape, examine the positive and negative interdependencies associated with neighboring Ukraine, and delve into the planning for the reconstruction of Ukraine and its long-term impact.

Additional Registration and pricing details are available here!

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Material and commentaries published in the past may or may not be helpful in analyzing current economic or financial market activity. Please note publishing date when reviewing materials. Please email [email protected] for our current thoughts or to reach an advisor.

Cumberland Advisors' Week in Review (Aug 14 - Aug 18, 2023)

ABOUT

CLIENTS

INVESTMENTS

MEDIA

OUR TEAM

DISCLOSURES

800.257.7013