Good news, but does it matter?

Both the overall and core CPI measures rose by a modest 0.1 percent for March, bringing the 12-month trend rates down to 2.4 and 2.8 percent, respectively. The trend rates are both better than market expectations, although the three- and six-…

We know (and virtually all economists agree) that tariff increases are a supply shock that slows economic activity and increases prices. Does this mean that the U.S. will experience a near-term recession and inflation will move higher? The answer to this depends crucially on how higher tariffs…

The first quarter of 2025 saw yields on US Treasuries (Tsy) rise at the start of the year with the anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration and the expectation for greater spending and for higher potential inflation pushing yields higher in early January. The remainder of the quarter and the…

The events of the quarter include DOGE and tariff actions, the reassessing of and halting of subsidies, and the functioning and funding of major spending programs, e.g. Medicaid and education priorities, among many other changes from Trump 2.0 that will challenge municipalities. These challenges…

A solid employment report for March.

Jobs Friday is usually the “highlight” of economic data for the week (indeed, for the month), but with everything going on with tariffs, it seems almost beside the point. Especially as it looks back at the month before the implementation of…

In this article we consider the current environment and congressional discussions related to the potential removal or cap of the municipal tax exemption. We see the outright removal of the federal tax exemption from exempt municipal bonds as a low probability but not zero, and we believe that if…

President Trump presented his tariff plan on Wednesday afternoon at a Rose Garden ceremony. Here is a summary of the plan:

Income up strongly with spending positive – but core inflation a bit hotter than expected.

Cooler than expected inflation for February. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose by 0.2 percent (expectations of 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent last month), while the core CPI (excluding the volatile food and energy components) also climbed by 0.2…

Both the equity and fixed-income markets have been dealing with higher levels of volatility in the past few weeks (winner-equities). But the uncertainty, of course, comes out of left field (as it usually does).